23/10/2011

Ante-Post Update

I was at Aintree yesterday and whilst I didn't have any proper bets it was marvelous to be in the crisp open air on a fine autumnal day watching Jump racing. I'm no photographer but I managed to get a half decent picture of Monet's Garden in the parade ring before the race named after him.

Anyway, all things lead to the Festival in March and I have my share of bets already and have had for awhile.
Sprinter Sacre is a horse I immediately had in mind for the Arkle after his fine third in the Supreme back in March. He strikes as a fine, big chasing type, more so than any of the placed runners in a fine renewal of that Novice Hurdle. None of the leading contenders have jumped a fence yet (I expect Cue Card to be aimed elsewhere) but it looks like a cracking year for novice chasers.

I think the Queen Mother Champion Chase is more wide open than I can ever remember it and the record of the previous year's Arkle winners in the race point towards Captain Chris being worth a bet. I'm a big fan of this horse and thought he'd be my Hennessy bet after he ran really well behind Medermit at Sandown in February over what looked an inadequate two and a half miles - hence me not fancying him at all for the Arkle :(. I think he's going to be a big player this season and I have already punted him for the King George. As for my reasons behind backing him for that race and the Queen Mother, I suppose I'm kind of thinking if he gets beat at Kempton he'll be two mile bound and so I'll have two bites at the cherry so to speak. In any event plans are fluid this time of year and he shouldn't be longer in the market than Finian's Rainbow - a horse he beat very convincingly back in March.

My Gold Cup horse, Time for Rupert, runs at Wetherby next Saturday. This chaser looked an absolute can't miss superstar before his too bad to be true run in the RSA and I think that run, which can be ignored for me, is factored too much into his price. I also think Long Run is way too short at the moment. The likes of Kauto Star and Denman getting to, and running really well in the Gold Cup year after year has made it look easier to get a staying chaser to the race that many times than it actually really is - and I think odds of 5/2 about Nicky Henderson's star at this stage are crazy - and I have to look for alternatives.

Betfair Chase:
Diamond Harry £5w @ 11/1

King George:
Captain Chris £10w @ 10/1

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Arkle:
Sprinter Sacre £30w @ 116/10

Champion Chase:
Captain Chris £20w @ 12/1

Gold Cup:
Time for Rupert £50w @ 16/1

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