Royal Ascot - Day 1

Three selections for me on the opening day of flat racing's best meeting and they're all ante-post picks I've noted on here before.

In the Queen Anne I wanted to be against Animal Kingdom as soon as the prices came out and with Farhh sidelined my each way bet on Elusive Kate at 20/1 looks pretty much nailed on if she runs to form. It's very hard to see her out of the places. She likes fast ground, a straight track and ran well enough last year on her first run of the season. The favourite will be hard to beat in all likelihood but he's never run over a straight mile before and his turf record isn't the best. At his sort of price you want more in your favour than he has and he's easily opposed. I topped up at 10/1 when the decs were made.

The King's Stand is one of those races that I have a bad record in (I mentioned my poor record in the Oaks always tempered confidence in tackling that race a couple of weeks ago) and this contest comes under the same banner. That said I was impressed enough with Reckless Abandon's first run of the season carrying a penalty in the Temple Stakes at Haydock and was happy to take 10/1 about him for this race a day or two after that pipe opener. I confess I know little about the Australian horse who heads the market but his last two wins have come in Dubai and I feel form from their Carnival meeting in March has a tendency to be a bit overrated when it comes to translating it to the European scene. Indeed this may also apply to Animal Kingdom. Of the others in the field I'm not a big fan of the sprinting division in this country and as ever it's ripe for a new star. Reckless Abandon looks a solid bet and he's trained on. For fast 2yo's who plainly won't get a mile knowing they have improved enough over the winter to take a hand with battle hardened sprinters is a big plus. As ever my ante-post position on him has been topped up.

The bet I'm most confident of collecting on is Toronado in the St James's Palace Stakes. This animal was incredibly impressive in the Craven Stakes in April before tiring badly in the last furlong of the 2000 Guineas. That day he chased a very fast pace and paid the penalty. He actually reminds me of a horse called Roaring Forte who was one of the market leaders for the Hunt Cup three or four years ago. He played up in the stalls that day and was withdrawn at the start but I backed him next time out in the International Handicap over 7f on King George day at Ascot. A front runner, he set a fast pace in front of a big field that day and was out of his comfort zone in doing so, he got tied badly in the last furlong and ended up nearer last than first. However, at York in a handicap over a mile around a turn in August he set a much more sensible pace and won nicely. Now, Toronado is more a pace chaser than a front runner but he was taken out of his comfort zone that day at Newmarket in May in trying to stay ahead of Dawn Approach and with a smaller field and a turn to run round I expect him to return to form. The Guineas form does look suspect to me and I think Dawn Approach was just slowing down at a slower rate than his rivals and although I won't go as far as to say he won't win tomorrow like I did in my post before the Derby he is much too short given the solid opposition. Magician is a horse I respect enormously and I would normally cover on him but my initial bet on Toronado was placed at 5/1 with the feeling that there was no way he would finish out of the first three so there is no need for a second bet.

Queen Anne:
Elusive Kate £15ew @ 20/1 and £20w @ 10/1 (lost)

King's Stand:
Reckless Abandon £50w @ 8/1 (lost)

St James's Palace:
Toronado £40ew @ 9/2 (2nd)

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