Wincanton - 10th Nov

Third Jumps bet of the season tomorrow and the third Nick Williams horse I've backed. It might seem like I follow the stable slavishly but when a Hennessy winner like Diamond Harry is 8/1 first time out against the sort of opposition he faces tomorrow on a mark 6lbs lower than the one he won on at Newbury it would be downright rude not to tuck in.

The horse had a poor season in 2011/12 but there are mitigating circumstance. First time out in the Betfair Chase he travelled really well behind Kauto Star before weakening in the straight and essentially being outclassed. No shame in that. He then ran twice at Cheltenham - a course it is clear now he absolutely does not act around. He'd plainly not recovered from those exertions when he pulled up at Aintree in April. The trainer has admitted that he's a fragile horse and he probably shouldn't have gone to Liverpool. There has been no news on any physical ailment and first time out does seem to be the time to catch him.

Tomorrow's opposition are light years away from kauto Star and Long Run and if he's anywhere near his Hennessy Gold Cup winning form (and a lack of injury news, the fact that he is still only nine years old, plus his lightly raced profile) suggests he could be - he's pretty much nailed on for this sort of contest.

I am also considering a bet in the Elite Hurdle that precedes Diamond Harry's race. Zarkandar has to give a fair bit of weight away to some decent types and I like the chances of Prospect Wells from the same Paul Nicholls stable. I'm holding off for the time being as I want to know what the ground will be. Prospect Wells was only beaten 2L in the Supreme on good ground and has ropey looking form on softer.

Edit 10th Nov:
The ground has changed to soft, good to soft in places after overnight rain at Wincanton and that puts me off Prospect Wells. His trainer actually says in today's Racing Post that he wants rain for the horse but that goes against what the form book says. On this sort of ground I like the claims of Balder Success. He looked a horse of some promise before coming down in the Triumph Hurdle and I think for such a young horse that was a monumental test for him. I think he found the lively ground and fast pace too much to cope with. The 4/1 about him today is a decent price. This sort of small field race on soft ground isn't really going to suit Zarkandar who is up against it running off 163 for all that he's a quality animal. I actually think he'd be a strong contender for the World Hurdle this season but I doubt Nicholls will let him take on Big Buck's

Elite Hurdle:
Balder Success £50w @ 4/1 (lost)

Badger Ales Trophy:
Diamond Harry £60w @ 8/1 (lost)

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