Big Weekend

This weekend potentially sees two incredibly defining match-ups between Sprinter Sacre and Sanctuaire at Sandown in the Tingle Creek on Saturday and Flemenstar versus Sir Des Champs in the John Durkan at Punchestown. I'll be in attendance at the former, my first visit to Sandown, and I am nearly beside myself in anticipation. I expect the Black Aeroplane to deal with Sanctuaire reasonably comfortably and the setting plus the racing and jumping characteristics of these two animals make this the most exciting renewal of the race since the legendary 2004 renewal that featured Moscow Flyer, Azertyuiop and Well Chief.
Over in Ireland on Sunday I'll be more tense if anything because I am trying to build up a position on Flemenstar for the Gold Cup. He's a fantastic jumper of a fence and I think ground and travelling worries are overstated in regard to his chances at Cheltenham. Sprinter Sacre aside he's the most exciting second season chaser around imo.

The weekend just gone was a pretty informative one and we had a number of Festival clues to ponder. Bob's Worth won the Hennessy nicely enough and I think he is a worthy favourite for the Gold Cup at this time but I think one or two of his rivals may have too much for him come March and at around 5/1 he seems priced about right to me.
I was quite taken by Arvika Ligeonniere in the Drinmore. He jumped neatly and economically and looks a horse with gears. His action suggests good ground won't be a problem to him (also ran well in the Albert Bartlett at the Festival on decent ground in his novice hurdle days) and I think quotes of 10/1 about him for the Arkle represent a touch of value. Simonsig hasn't been out yet and he's very short for the race considering he has yet to jump a fence. I've been keen to have a go at the race for a while because of this and Willie Mullins horse is the first contender to properly excite me for the race. I think his inflated price might have something to do with the thought that the horse could be a stayer in the making but Mullins has Boston Bob for the RSA and I feel he'd much prefer to win the Arkle than the Jewson and with Arvika Ligeonniere not being owned by Gigginstown the trainer may get his way this time. There is of course plenty of precedent for staying novice hurdlers running over two miles as novice chasers - Simonsig is going down this route and Tiday Bay won the Arkle having been campaigned over longer trips as a younger horse.
Elsewhere Champagne Fever blotted his copybook in the Royal Bond and whilst you could argue the trip was too short he doesn't look as fluent or as classy over timber as Clandaw Kaempfer who has really impressed me with his two victories thus far this season. He won over two miles last time out but looks a staying prospect and is bred to appreciate decent ground. Donald McCain won the Neptune with Peddlers Cross in 2010 and this horse looks just as good at this stage of their respective careers.

King George:
Al Ferof £30w @ 10/1
Finian's Rainbow £15w @ 8/1

-------------
Arkle:
Trifolium £10w @ 27/1
Arvika Ligeonniere £15w @ 10/1

Champion Hurdle:
Spirit Son £35w @ 13/1
Grandouet £10w @12/1

Neptune:
Clandaw Kaempfer £15w @ 14/1

RSA:
Fingal Bay £50w @ 12/1
Our Father £10w @ 14/1

Jewson:
Oscars Well £15w @ 16/1

Gold Cup:
Flemenstar £50w @ 13/1
Al Ferof £5w @ 54/1

Doubles:
Sizing Europe (King George) and Clandaw Kaempfer (Neptune) £10 @ 8/1 and 12/1

Grandouet (Champion Hurdle) and Sir Des Champs (Gold Cup) £10 @ 12/1 and 6/1