Arc Thoughts

Even though I consider myself more of a jumps than a flat man these days (I would say 60/40 in favour of the former), The Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe remains my favourite race of the whole year.

I've backed the winner more often in this race than any other. I had money on Suave Dancer, Subotica, Hellisio, Montjeu, Bago, Hurricane Run, Rail Link and Dylan Thomas when they won in Paris in October.

This year we have a market at this present time with a huge amount of juice in it. Best prices now:

Camelot 3/1
Danedream 6/1
Nathaniel 7/1
Orfevre 12/1
Meandre 16/1
Snow Fairy 18/1
Masterstroke 20/1

I can't have Camelot one iota. Only one 3yo colt has won an all aged Group 1 this year, an appalling stat. It's a poor crop. Add to that Aidan O'Brien's bad record in the race with his 3yos and also the fact that the horse is running in the St Leger and he is not so much opposed as completely overlooked. Nathaniel is another horse I cannot have. He's only a point longer than Danedream despite the fact that the German filly holds him on form, is proven on the course, and whereas she has had her prep in a relatively straight forward German Group 1 that was run at a steady pace Nathaniel runs in the Irish Champion on Saturday. I don't think he'll win that and even if he does it will be a hard battle. Not ideal prep for an Arc. In 2003 Dalakhani won the race narrowly from Mubtaker with High Chaparral five lengths back in third. That wasn't the latter's form, but whereas the front two had prepped for the Arc with easy successes in the Niel and the September Stakes, High Chaparral had contested the Irish Champion and had a lung bursting duel with the top class Falbrav that surely left it's mark. Time and again we see Arc winners who have campaigns geared towards the race and it really does pay to side with these animals.

My money is already down on Orfevre for this. Japan's triple crown winner is such an exciting horse to watch. Here he is earlier this summer

To me he has that flashy brilliance that Deep Impact had. Crucially though Orfevre will take in the Prix Foy on Arc trials day. This is something Deep Impact didn't do in his prep for the Arc and his rustiness cost him in my opinion. He hadn't run since the June of that year and that told in October. Orfevre is a great price for this and I see Danedream as pretty much the only danger. Therefore she's added as cover.



Orfevre £40w @ 15/1
Danedream £10w @ 6/1
Danedream and Boston Bob (RSA Chase) £10dbl @ 6/1 and 10/1
£30 lost on two NR's