Bronze Angel's win last Saturday was some buzz. He only took the lead in the last fifty yards but put nearly a length between himself and the runner up as they crossed the line and if his trainer runs him in the Lincoln he'd be worth backing again. As a punter who doesn't bet every day wins like this define a season and I'm now sure to finish in profit this flat season.
I'm in a great position in tomorrow's big race despite three non-runners now Danedream doesn't go (although I got some of my stake back on her so unusual were the circumstances regarding her withdrawal). I first backed Orfevre for the race way back in April when someone posted a video on a Forum I'm a member of of a race where he dropped out as the runners went around a bend only for the horse to get back in the race late on to finish second. It was a stunning performance. Japanese horses have tried and failed to win this race in the past and like runners-up Nakayama Festa and El Condor Pasa Orfevre has raced in France in preparation for the Arc and I think his run in the Prix Foy was most encouraging. I have 12/1 about him which is now excellent value but I do worry that really soft ground won't be totally ideal. His wide draw in stall 18 is far from ideal as well. Having said that the likes of Dalakhani and Sakhee have won the race from coffin draws in the past and with Soumillon riding (no one rides Longchamp better) I still expect a big run.
Nick Mordin came out with an interesting statistic in relation to the race in this week's Racing Post Weekender. Apparently 12 of the last 13 Arc winners had won a Group 1 race that season by at least two lengths. Only Orfevre, Camelot and St Nicholas Abbey qualify of this years runners. I can't have Camelot as his trainer has a terrible record with his 3yos at this meeting (they're usually over the top by the Autumn so busy have they been running in Classics) and his run in the St Leger hardly inspires any confidence. SNA has been on the go all year and for me has no chance. Sea Moon though won the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot by three lengths and that race is pretty much a Group 1 in all but name. It is certainly usually a better race than most Group 1 races run in Germany and even the odd one in France. Sea Moon loves cut in the ground and conditions in Paris will really suit him tomorrow. I think he has excellent place claims.
I've also backed the 3yo Saonois. He won the Prix du Jockey Club a shade cozy and might have been more impressive (and even qualified using Mordin's stat) if that race was still a 12f contest. I was also taken with his win in the Prix Niel. After my debacle in the race last year when I was all over SNA and Sarafina I resolved that I would never go into the Arc again without at least one 3yo on my side. They have a terrific record in the race and I feel this is partly due to the overly generous weight-for-age allowance they receive (older males give 8 and 11lb to 3yo colts and fillies respectively) and also the way they are put away for the summer in preparation for the race. Saonois seems the likeliest candidate of that age group and his unfashionable connections mean he is still overpriced. In summary Camelot's ridiculous price (he's favourite when I believe there are at least four likelier winners) means there is good value to be had about more than one horse in this great race in 2012.
I normally top up on my main fancy for these races as the day gets close but with Orfevre's poor draw/soft ground concern and my liking for the two other animals mentioned I've decided to leave it.
Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe:
Orfevre £70w @ 12/1 (lost)
Sea Moon £15w £25pl @ 12/1(lost)
Saonois £30w @ 10/1(lost)
£40 lost on three non-runners
(+881)
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