My confidence in Johns Spirit for today's big race remains steadfast but I'm worried about the weather forecast. He acts on soft ground and ran a smasher in the race last year but I do think he's better on more decent ground and I'm just hoping the rain isn't as heavy and as prolonged as is forecast. Re-watching last year's renewal Johns Spirit was held up in a relatively slowly run edition and took the lead at the last before being chinned on the line - today's race is sure to be more truly run with a host of front runners in the line-up which should suit him more and hopefully he won't be asked to lead till well after the last jump. I think it's a slightly stronger race this year and I fear Boondooma and King's Palace most of his rivals. I was all over the latter for the RSA last year and whilst I couldn't back him for this at his price given his overall form profile (not proven in big fields and when not allowed to dominate) he's a horse with stacks of talent and isn't easily written off. Boondooma won a hum drum race at the open meeting very impressively, kicking on when challenged after helping set a strong pace over two miles last time out and he could be one of those second season progressive chasers who is well handicapped. The sponsors have Johns Spirit at 14s this morning and I've topped up. My best guess is there will be a younger rival too well handicapped for him to handle today but it's hard to see him out of the frame (five places paid) if he gets round.
I managed to catch the novice hurdle live yesterday during my lunch break at work and was deeply impressed with Shantou Village. Unfortunately I had to get back to my desk before I saw the trainer's post-race interview and I took some 16s about him for the Neptune without hearing that he was going to be stepped up in trip. This seems premature now with the Albert Bartlett just as likely a Festival target for him.
Paddy Power Gold Cup:
Johns Spirit £30ew @ 13/1(lost)
(+206.25)
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