Fairyhouse - 29th Nov

    Gotta admit yesterday hurt. I was so confident about Top Notch for the Fighting Fifth and the only reason I don't go in heavier was the non-runner loss on Hargam in the same race. That said I tend to be a level stakes punter when it comes to conditions races as I've found through the years that oftentimes my strongest fancies lose whilst ones I'm not so sure about win. I'm ok with that in general but getting a race pretty much spot on in terms of being against the front two in the market but still having the money burgled is frustrating. Sunday is a different day though and this time I'll be cheering on those pesky Gigginstown colours. The Drinmore is one of my favourite jumps races even though the one time I've been to Fairyhouse was the year the meeting was abandoned after the Royal Bond because of high winds. This year's renewal looks well up to scratch with four or five really nice prospects taking it in and after re-watching some of the participants most recent races I think the prices are a bit off. Layers tend to frame markets based around who most punters want to back and you can't blame them for that, but most punters aren't that disciplined or form inclined and tend to go for hype. No More Heroes is a serious looking prospect and was fine first time out over the larger obstacles but I struggle to see him as a true 11/8 shot in such a good field. I think the claims of Free Expression, Monksland and Outlander are pretty much just as valid and so I've backed the latter simplyc because he's the largest price of the quartet. Yes he was slightly fortunate in beating Free Expression at Punchestown given how that horse was hampered but it's far from certain a reversal will take place here, I think it's 50/50 in all honesty, and so the price differential between the two (4/1-11/2) is a bit out of line. The ground at Fairyhouse will be softer than it was for that race and that will suit the selection and whilst I wouldn't call him an each way bet to nothing (it's not even a four horse contest with Shantou Flyer holding possible place claims) he looks overpriced and the firm holding those odds are offering a money back special on the race (free bet if second.)

Drinmore Novice Chase:

Outlander £20ew @ 11/2 (NR)