Newbury and Newcastle - 28th Nov

    I've already posted on my liking for Houblon Des Obeaux's chances in today's Hennessy and I'm happy the ground has come right for him after he was disappointing on good going at Ascot first time out - my 20/1 ante-post has been topped up this morning. It's a shame Coneygree doesn't run but Saphir Du Rheu does bring that bit of class to the race at the head of the weights and he's to be feared obviously. He's trading at around 4/1 this morning and if memory serves I think Denman was a similar price eight years ago. The Tank won his first Hennessy off 161 and SDR is rated 163 which sort of illustrates the task he faces. I wouldn't back the horse but he's far from the worst value in the race given that Smad Place (won't stay) and Bob's Worth (gone at the game) are single figures also. My selection is on a similar mark to last year and will relish conditions and whilst he's value this race normally falls to a second season chaser and I just have to hope there isn't another Many Clouds in the line-up.

    My other bet today is on Top Notch in the Fighting Fifth. I ballsed up big-time last weekend when backing Hargam for this. I expected the race would cut up badly - and I even put store by the BBC weather forecast for the Newcastle area for the week, they predicted a dry week!! Hargam doesn't go of course but his stable companion loves a bit of cut and 5/1 is just too big. He has excellent claims of reversing form with Irving from last week given that that was his first run of the season and Nicholls charge looks vulnerable today - he's been very busy in recent weeks. Whilst I sort of respect the market leader Wicklow Brave he was hard fit from the flat when finishing respectably enough behind Nichols Canyon and Faugheen in the Morgiana and was flattered mightily. He's well worth taking on at his price.

Fighting Fifth Hurdle:

Hargam £15 NR

Top Notch £40w @ 5/1 (2nd)

Hennessy Gold Cup:

Houblon Des Obeaux £10w @ 20/1 and £10ew @ 14/1 (lost)

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