The Curragh & Longchamp - 13th Sept

    After a quiet start to the weekend from a punting point of view I have an explosion of bets today and I could badly do with a winner. Before I detail them a word about yesterday's action. Obviously most of the headlines surround the controversial bumping and booring in the St Leger and the Irish Champion but what stood out to me was the performance of Emotionless in the Champagne Stakes. He won on the bridle from a progressive type in second, the form stacks up nicely and I was very surprised to see double figures available about the horse for next year's 2000 Guineas immediately after the race. I was happy to snap up those prices.

    Anyway, onto today. The market for the Irish St Leger looks all wrong to me. The Ballydoyle colt heading it looks incredibly short. Yes, he was impressive last time out but the horse he beat that day hasn't any form for the last two years and it's plain he owes his position in the market purely down to where he's trained. The ground doesn't look soft enough at this trip for Forgotten Rules and Brown Panther is coming back from injury. Luca Cumani is having a fine season and Second Step looks way overpriced for this at around 8/1. I took 10s yesterday and have topped up since. His run behind Big Orange in the Princess of Wales's Stakes at the July meeting was franked by the winner last time out (Second Step carried a penalty that day) and he won nicely next time out in Germany. Like I said yesterday his pedigree suggests he'll improve for this trip and I expect a big run.

    Esoterique has been a revelation this season but she looks a false favourite for the Prix du Moulin. The ground today is completely different from the churned up mess the Marois was run on and a couple of her beaten rivals that day, Territories and Karakontie, look value picks here. The former's best form is all on decent ground and the latter was off the track for eight months prior to that comeback run at Deauville. Yes you have to take it on trust that he's the same horse he was last year but at 10/1 it's worth the risk.

    Treve should win the Vermeille and she's not lightly opposed but Sea Calisi was the best horse in the Yorkshire Oaks, she was disadvantaged by her position in the race relative to the conditions prevailing at York and the way the race was run and at 11/1 today she rates a decent each way bet.

EDIT: 11:40am

I've sort of messed up. Just found out that Longchamp had 25mm of rain overnight making the ground very soft. This flat season has been hit so horribly from a weather point of view. Err, my Territories bet looks a waste, Karakontie won't mind the ground too much and I'm not sure about Sea Calisi. I've added Ribbons at 5/1 in the Blandford Stakes at the Curragh. She was disappointing last time out but her form was at a decent level before then and there must be a good chance Tapestry will need this. I'm so mad I didn't check the weather in France. Poor form.

Blandford Stakes:
Ribbons £40w @ 5/1 (won)

Irish St Leger:

Second Step £40w @ 88/10 (lost)

Prix Vermeille:

Sea Calisi £20ew @ 11/1 (3rd)

Prix du Moulin

Karakontie £15ew @ 10/1 (lost)

Territories £25w @ 4/1 (nr)

Prix du Moulin/National Stakes:

Karakontie (lost) Air Force Blue £10 dbl @ 10/1 & 11/8

(-482.82)