Leopardstown & Chepstow - 28th Dec

Busy day's racing today and I've been up since the crack of dawn trying to sort through it.

The ground is heavy at Chepstow and the Welsh National will be an attritional contest where the ability to stay a marathon trip and go on bottomless ground will be key. I've picked out two in the race. Wyck Hill has disappointed in his two outings thus far this season but he's a horse who loves deep ground. He beat the high class Katenko in it at Ascot last December and was a cracking third at Punchestown in April behind a couple of animals he was conceding nearly two stone to. With the top class Tidal Bay heading the weights Wyck Hill has a nice racing weight today and will outrun his 28/1 price. I've also backed Highland Lodge who ran a stormer in the Hennessy Gold Cup last time out. That race is working out well and he goes on really soft ground. On a line through Alfie Spinner his narrow defeat behind a lightly weighted Standing Ovation at Wincanton at the end of October (gave 26lbs) gives him the beating of Well Refreshed who heads the market.

The most disappointing aspect of the NH season thus far for me is my abject failure to back any of the Nick Williams horses that have been winning on big race days recently. I was a tad taken in with the hype surrounding At Fishers Cross before the Long Walk Hurdle and just didn't fancy Reve de Sivola to beat him despite the ground being perfect for him that day. Even worse than that was the fact that I had Amore Alato on my tracker after his win at Wincanton in November but I just couldn't pull the trigger on him at Kempton on Boxing Day. It looked a tough race with the well touted Dubai Price and a well touted Henderson beast amongst his opponents and I think I was so keyed up for the King George itself that I almost couldn't be bothered. A bad mistake.
Nick has a couple of horses running at Chepstow today. The 3yo he runs in the Grade 1 Juvenile Hurdle was well beat in a similar race in France recently and doesn't appeal but Un Bon P'Tit Gars does. This horse has had a couple of runs in Novice Chases this season, including an outing at Chepstow, and his jumping seems to be getting better. He was no match for Valdez last time out but that animal looks a graded chaser in the making. Today he's at the foot of the weights and I've taken 6/1 about him.

Over in Ireland the race of the day is the Lexus Chase. The interesting thing about this race from a betting point of view is how ridiculously short Unioniste is. He's shorter than First Lieutenant and only a point or so longer than Sir Des Champs and Bob's Worth despite the fact that he beat a 156 rated chaser last time out getting weight. Nicholls does have a great record in the Lexus but this has been way over factored in this market. I've backed First Lieutenant at 7/1. He had a busy season in 2012/13 and his trainer has admitted it's taken time to get him going. He was second in this last season and although the ground is a concern it was soft here twelve months ago and he's overpriced given his overall profile.

Lastly, stakes are down a bit partly because I'm not having a good time of it at the moment from a punting point of view and partly because I have issues at work meaning meaning financial security is a slight worry going into 2014.

Welsh National:
Wyck Hill £15ew @ 28/1 (pu)
Highland Lodge £25w @ 10/1 (pu)

Lexus Chase:
First Lieutenant £40w @ 7/1 (lost)

Coral Handicap Chase:
Un Bon P'Tit Gars £40w @ 6/1 (pu)

(-612.5)