Cheltenham Festival - Day 1

    I mentioned in my previous entry how confident I feel this week, I have my best portfolio for years and I'll put it out there right now, I want and expect at least four winners.

    I like Altior as much as any horse I've backed this week but the Supreme is a horrible race for me, I've never backed the winner. A few years ago that alone would be enough for me to reduce stakes but actually it's not a race I've gotten involved in too often in the past given that most of the time we have no past Festival form to go on but Altior is just a horse I fell for after his win at Ascot in October. I like the way he gutted out a win that day, I backed him next time against Maputo and he was so impressive after a hitting a flat spot at Kempton Christmas time. Obviously Min might be another Douvan or Vautour but I've taken that chance on the Henderson horse.

    Sizing John was my initial fancy for the JLT on Thursday. He was always going to be a better chaser than hurdler, ran a great race behind Douvan last year and I snaffled double figures about him at the turn of the year. When rumours started on Twitter that connections preferred the Arkle I was annoyed but lucked out in seeing 10/1 for him in the without Douvan market on a slow-reacting high street bookmakers site. I took that price, filled up at 6s and 7s in the same market on Betfair and have topped up since. Only seven horses go to post and although I respect Vaniteux he didn't look that safe a jumper to me last time out at Doncaster and I rate this bet as possibly my nap of the week.

    The Champion Hurdle looks wide open and although I like Nichols Canyon a lot for the race I would prefer the horse if he was in a different yard. Mullins has a clear owner hierarchy and Wylie seems at the bottom of it. Nichols Canyon win at Leopardstown at the end of December from Identity Thief on really soft ground didn't earn him much time off and imo he was in the red when making a mistake at the second last trying to keep tabs on Faugheen in the Irish Champion. The stable prefer Annie Power which naturally is not ideal. I hope they're wrong.

    Finally Vicente is worth a look in the four miler. There was a lot to like about his win in a nice Novice Chase here at the Paddy Power meeting in November on similar ground that he'll encounter tomorrow. Two or three good types were in behind or didn't compete that day and although he wasn't in the same form next time out the ground was too soft for him that day. 

(+143.51)

Supreme Novices' Hurdle:

Altior £30w @ 66/10 and £25w @ 4/1 (won)

Arkle Trophy:

Sizing John £10ew @ 10/1 and £40w @ 44/10 (w/o Douvan) (won)

Ultima Handicap Chase:
Fingal Bay NR £20

Champion Hurdle:

Peace and Co £30w @ 146/10 (lost)

Nichols Canyon £10ew @ 13/2 and £40w @ 52/10 (3rd)

National Hunt Chase:

Vicente £10w @ 20/1 and £10ew @ 16/1 (lost)

£5ew Doubles:

(Supreme/CH) Buveur D'Air(3rd)Nichols Canyon(3rd) @ 8/1 and 5/1

(Supreme/WH) Buveur D'Air(3rd)Cole Harden @ 7/1 and 8/1

(Arkle(w/o Douvan)/Ryanair) Sizing John(won)Road to Riches @ 7/2

(CH/County) Nichols Canyon(3rd)Starchitect @ 9/2 and 16/1

(+643.01)