Ascot - 19th Oct

Without Frankel Champions Day at Ascot has a bit of a damp squib look about it in comparison to last year.
In the Sprint there is no Society Rock, Lethal Force or Gordon Lord Byron, who somewhat surprisingly goes in the QEII.
The fillies race is short on quality as well and numerous animals are missing from the big two races. The Champion Stakes in particular is a pale shadow of it's first two runnings at the Berkshire track. It's a shame there isn't a big 2yo race as well. All in all the flat struggles to end it's season in the proper way and the climax of the Jumps is always far better.

Anyway, onto my bets. In the QEII I wasn't anticipating a bet until I saw some of the odds about Dawn Approach yesterday and I've taken 11/4 about him. He's the best horse in the race who is longer than he should be because of a poor run at Deauville in August. That was one race too many for a horse who had been very busy since the start of May and two months off since then should see him back to his best - he's certainly in expert hands and I do trust his trainer to have him back. Of his rivals I like Soft Falling Rain a lot but he looks a fast ground horse but Maxios and Olympic Glory don't concern me overmuch. The former was flattered in the Moulin and the latter's run in the Marois, whilst very good on the face of it, is by some way his best form and I get the feeling the form is overrated with Moonlight Cloud being a lot better over shorter. On form the selection is easily the best animal in the contest and so the only question is will he be back to his best or near it - I think that's a lot less than a 5/2 shot. The ground concerns me slightly but not enough to put me off at the price.

In the Champion Stakes itself I took 20/1 about Triple Threat earlier in the week and I have topped up. The conditions he'll face today are pretty much his optimum and there isn't a whole lot of contenders in the race you can say that about. Cirrus Des Aigles is one but he looks a bit short given his problems earlier in the year and the lack of quality about the horses he has beaten the last two times he has run. I think Farhh has the best form in the race this year but 10f on soft will really stretch his stamina and he doesn't appeal. Morandi sort of does but the price has gone since Pricewise selected him and I think this short straight over 10f is against him. I'm very hopeful Triple Threat will place and a big priced win is just what I need after a poorish end to my season.

QEII:
Dawn Approach £65w @ 11/4 (lost)

Champion Stakes:
Intello (NR) £19
Triple Threat £20ew @ 19/1 (lost)

(-227.7)