This time next month we'll be in the midst of the best four days racing of the year. Over the next couple of days I'm gonna go over all my bets and my thoughts on the way a lot of the races look at the moment.
Supreme Novices':
The Liquidator £15w @ 176/10
Vautour put a huge marker down for the opener when winning impressively at Leopardstown on Sunday but at 4/1 he looks a little short given that he had the run of the race. You'd have to think the other jockeys won't let Ruby have his way up front this time around. Last year a couple of layers offered enhanced place terms on this contest and assuming the same thing happens again I'll be topping up on The Liquidator at a nice price. He plainly didn't give his running last time out and I just hope his win on the course earlier in the campaign hasn't bottomed him. I'd also like to see him ridden a little more conservatively.
Arkle Trophy:
Felix Yonger £20w @ 13/1
Felix Yonger has been the Novice Chaser that has impressed me the most this season but he looks more likely to go for the JLT over further on Thursday. I don't anticipate having another bet in this race now. Champagne Fever loves the track and although he needs to improve a lot on what we've seen him accomplish over fences thus far I expect him to do this. Trifolium and Valdez look the pick of his opponents and if the underfoot conditions on the day were not too soft I would consider putting the latter in an each way double. He looks a fine jumper out of good ground.
Champion Hurdle:
Jezki £20w @ 172/10
My Tent or Yours £40w @ 7/1
My Tent or Yours £15w @ 5/1 (NRNB)
Our Conor £15w @ 9/1 (NRFB)
Our Conor £15w @ 6/1 (NRNB)
I've been following horse racing since 1989 and in all that time I can't think of a single renewal of any great race that looks as mouth watering as this year's Champion Hurdle. It has it all - a defending champion, one of the all-time greats, who's supporters still think he is under appreciated, a couple of top draw second season hurdlers with 170+ ratings who bring excellent Festival form to the party. And of course the best Triumph Hurdle winner in living memory. Add in the Britain v Ireland angle and you have a race for the ages. Personally I am completely against The New One and Hurricane Fly, the two market leaders, for differing reasons. In a renewal as stacked as this one is The New One doesn't hurdle well enough to win. He made a big mistake at the last in the Christmas Hurdle and the chances must be high a similar error will occur in the high octane heat of this race, especially as pressure is applied towards the end. Hurricane Fly is just too old in my opinion. His very best form is in Ireland and at his skinny odds he has to be taken on. I backed Jezki at big odds last March and added My Tent or Yours a month or so later. I'm not too confident about the former but the latter has done nothing wrong this term and enhanced his claims hugely when he outbattled The New One in the aforementioned Christmas Hurdle. The knock on him was he was a bit of a shirker but that theory was put to bed that day. He has learnt to settle better this season as well and with a likely fast pace assured with the likely presence of Un de Sceaux his high cruising speed will be a massive asset in the race as he'll probably be the last off the bridle. In the Supreme last year Champagne Fever prevailed partly because MTOY expended crucial energy by not settling that well and partly by setting a moderate enough pace so that he had enough left to hold the favourite off after the last. In this Champion Hurdle the pace will be strong and MTOY will in all probability settle better. This means he'll have a lot more left at the business end of the race and as we've seen he won't down tools in a battle. I recently added Our Conor to my portfolio because the layers overreacted to his defeat in the Ryanair Hurdle when he plainly needed the run. I thought he ran a stormer in the Irish Champion Hurdle in a race hardly run to suit when he travelled beautifully and was just done for a bit of toe near the end and one simply can't forget how imperious he was in the Triumph last year. Like My Tent or Yours he has enhanced his claims since the last Festival and yet has been available at bigger odds at times this winter. I rate him the main danger to the Henderson horse.
Neptune Novices':
Briar Hill £20w @ 12/1 (NRFB)
Ballyalton £5w @ 21/1
With Briar Hill likely headed to the Albert Bartlett I haven't really got any strong opinion in this race now. If the ground is decent I will go in on Ballyalton again as he looks a good tool on that surface and will be overpriced.
RSA:
Wonderful Charm £25w @ 16/1 (NRFB)
Smad Place £15w @ 8/1
Wonderful Charm is pretty certain to run in the opening race on Thursday.
I kind of fell for Smad Place last Saturday. He jumped really well throughout his win at Newbury and I really like the way he put his head down and outbattled Sam Winner for the win. He has decent Festival form and although I think I might have been a bit premature in putting this bet on (could be a similar price on the day) I think 8/1 overstates his chance. Ballycasey heads the market at around 5s and although he looked pretty decent on Sunday in the PJ Moriarty his odds of 5/1 look skinny to me. Carlingford Lough wouldn't have been too far away if he hadn't unseated at the last and at 14/1 he makes a lot more appeal. Another negative for the Mullins horse at his price is that he came over for the Albert Bartlett last season but got sick either during the journey or once stabled at the course. Hardly ideal. Carlingford Lough is a stayer who will be better suited to the field size and pace they'll go in this. He is a prime each way double candidate.
Champion Chase:
I backed Twinlight for the two mile championship with the NRNB concession but he was pulled out this morning. This race looks a no bet event and I hope Sprinter Sacre comes out and toys with them.
All in all Wednesday looks a relatively quiet day at this stage.
I will cover Thursday and Friday's action tomorrow.
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