I didn't anticipate a bet on Leopardstown excellent card today but that was before First Lieutenant drifted to 5/2 for the Hennessy Gold Cup. I can understand why he's available at that price, there is a school of thought that really deep ground doesn't suit the horse. But I think Mouse Morris trains him with specific targets in mind so it's the time of year that dictates how he'll run rather than the state of the ground. So typically First Lieutenant peaks for the Lexus over the Christmas period, and the spring Festivals.
I believe that this race today and the Grade 1 he won last year at Aintree are his main targets this season. Both are three mile events and that is his trip. Last season in the Ryanair he found Cue Card just a bit too speedy and this time around I expect he'll go for the Gold Cup and yet another clash with Bob's Worth who has beaten him everytime they've met. So today's race is his best chance of a Grade 1 this season and I expect his master trainer to have him at his peak.
Tidal Bay looks the pick of the opposition and you can certainly make a case for him given that he finished ahead of the selection twice in 2012/13 but the horse is a teenager now and I have to be against him for that reason. The rest of the field are respected but they all have about a stone to find with the two market leaders.
Hennessy Gold Cup:
First Lieutenant £40w @ 5/2 (lost)
(-468.75)
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