26/10/2014

Ante-Post

    I enjoyed yesterdays jumps cards at Chepstow and Aintree and feel attuned to the winter game now after a terrific summer.

    From a betting point of view I always take it easy these opening weeks but I'm always studying the ante-post lists with a view to taking a position and I have added a horse to the bets placed for Cheltenham just after the end of the last Festival.

    Josses Hill was the animal who made the most impression on me with a view to future Festivals last March and I backed him for the 2015 Arkle as soon as the market for the race appeared. If you visit Youtube and watch a re-run of the 2011 Supreme Novices' and fast forward it to just before the last one can see Al Ferof, Spirit Son, Sprinter Sacre and Cue Card almost in a line and it is incredibly noticeable just how much bigger Sprinter Sacre is across the shoulder than his rivals and he struck me then as much the best chasing prospect of the four. This past March's renewal of the Supreme didn't really produce a similar clue from a physical point of view but I did notice during the race just how big Josses Hill was at most of his hurdles. "Skying" hurdles is just not that energy efficient and he did well to finish as close as he did. All being well I expect Josses Hill to be a leading candidate for the Arkle come March.

    The other horse who most caught my eye that Tuesday in March was Champagne Fever who jumped like a stag when just getting touched off in his Arkle. He's bred to be a staying chaser however and the 20/1 I saw about him for next year's Gold Cup was just too big to pass up. At this stage it looks a wide open renewal and there are one or two candidates towards the front of the market who are way too short even at double figure prices - Silviniaco Conti looks a pure flat track horse to my eyes and Holywell, whilst progressive, is too short, especially compared to his stable companion Taquin Du Seuil who has arguably achieved more. I actually noted on here how impressed I was with that horse's jumping and general attitude when he beat Oscar Whiskey in a novice event at the Paddy Power meeting last November but never backed him for the Festival as I had ground concerns. At this stage I think he's the best value in the race.

    My other wager, recently placed, is King's Palace at 20/1 for the RSA. His trainer has confirmed he will be 3m chasing this season and I expect those odds to come tumbling down as the horse wins a string of small field events from the front. I thought he was prepared terribly for the Albert Bartlett last season in not having a prep for the race in the new year (that's always bad juju, especially for novices) and then being asked to chase a fast pace-something that was never going to end well given his freshness. We've seen David Pipe send shorties to the Festival in novice events without adequate preps in the past only to come unstuck and I have to think he's learned his lesson. We'll see

Arkle Trophy:
Josses Hill £35w @ 106/10

RSA Chase:
King's Palace £15w @ 20/1

Gold Cup
Champagne Fever £10w @ 20/1
Taquin Du Seuil £10w @ 26/1

   

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