Ante-Post

    Sad news about Faugheen missing the chance to defend his Champion Hurdle crown today and hopefully he'll be back next season. I have plenty of sympathy for connections and fans, none for anyone who backed him for the race given the price. I've learnt from experience you have to factor in a certain percentage of what I would call non-runner variance in each ante-post bet which basically translates for me as trying to avoid single figure prices. I like my budgets on the flat and this season I set out to have no more than £100 tied up ante-post in single figure priced horses before the Festival starts. I'm comfortably under this figure so added Sire de Grugy in the without the favourite market for the Queen Mother yesterday. The market looks a bit off in this race, Sire has close form ties this season with Sprinter Sacre so the price differential between the pair (2s and 8s) is wrong, and I cannot have Dodging Bullets at all. As for the Champion Hurdle now, I'd want to be against Annie Power and Arctic Fire at short odds and as well as Nichols Canyon I will consider adding Identity Thief nearer the day.

    Away from the Festival this Saturday's Ascot Chase is a fascinating one from a betting point of view with the front two in the market begging to be taken on. The last time Silviniaco Conti went to Ascot one of the horses in front of him was old friend of this blog Alfie Spinner - and this is over two and a half miles as well - well on the short side for him. Dynaste has also been below form this season and is easily passed over. I like Vibrato Valtat at this sort of trip, I think he's suffered recently from pace chasing crack two milers and so a more patient approach over further should ensure he finishes his races with a bit more gusto. I've taken some 10 on the machine about him, that's a great price but caution is the watchword considering I don't know if he's a certain runner. I also like him for the Ryanair as I've mentioned in previous posts.

EDIT: 19/2


Ascot Chase:
Vibrato Valtat £10w @ 9/1

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Supreme Novices'
Altior £20w @ 7/1

Arkle:
Sizing John £10ew @ 10/1 (w/o Douvan)

Champion Hurdle:

Peace and Co £25w @ 122/10
Nichols Canyon £10ew @ 13/2 and £25w @ 5/1 both NRNB

Neptune:
Shantou Village £10w @ 16/1

RSA:
Native River £5w @ 28/1

Champion Chase:
Felix Yonger £20ew @ 33/1 NRNB
Sire De Grugy £10ew @ 8/1 (w/o Un De Sceaux)

JLT Novices' Chase:
Sizing John £25w @ 136/10
Bristol De Mai £15w @ 12/1

World Hurdle:

Whisper £15w @ 13/1
Windsor Park £20w @ 14/1 NRNB

Ryanair:
Apache Stronghold NR £18
Champagne West £5w @ 54/1
Valseur Lido £25w @ 13/1 NRNB
Vibrato Valtat £15w @ 16/1 and £10ew @ 12/1 both NRNB

Brown Advisory Plate:
John's Spirit £5w @ 25/1

Triumph Hurdle:
Gibralfaro £10w @ 175/10

County Hurdle:
Desoto County £10w @ 16/1

Albert Bartlett:
Shantou Village £25w @ 116/10

Gold Cup:

Don Poli £30w @ 94/10 and £40w @ 13/2 NRNB
Vautour £10w @ 12/1 and £10w @ 8/1 NRNB

Holywell £5w @ 43/1

Any Race:
Shantou Village £10w @ 10/1