Haydock - Betfair Chase Day

I'm going to Haydock today and already have a position on Kauto Star. Worries about the ground and the fact that he tipped up in this race a year ago meant he was trading at 2.28 on Betfair yesterday. I took that for £75 and expect him to be odds-on as the money comes in for what is a very public horse. I intend to lay off £35 at around 1.9 if possible. I think the fact that he comes here fresh as opposed to running at Down Royal like last year is the key thing in making him a bet today. He has a huge amount in hand from a form point of view and should be odds-on. Notre Pere is a horse I like but not over 3 miles on a tight track. I consider Madison Du Berlais to be the main danger and may back him on course.

Diamond Harry is also a horse I will be backing on the track in the handicap hurdle.

Cheltenham - Open Meeting

The first big Jumps fixture of the season and I have found a bet in the big race. I think i'm gonna have a sneaky each way on Tartak - and i'll be taking the 16s with Paddy Power given the concession they are running (they will refund your stake if one of the Paul Nicholls trained runners wins) rather than the 18s available generally. He ran really well in the Arkle considering he was squeezed out at a time when he was travelling nicely. The trip was on the short side as well that day. I think we're getting a nice price because of his poor run at Aintree but i'm always willing to forgive the odd off day.

On sunday I have already backed James De Vassey in the Greatwood. I've always mulled over the idea of following a stable in the winter game to try and get a better handle on form (flat racing always being my main thing) but i've never quite found the right trainer. I didn't want someone either at the top of the tree or someone who was getting on a bit (toyed with the idea of following Ferdy Murphy a few years ago but felt he was too old) and last year I plumped for Nick Williams as a trainer with a lot of potential and someone who seemed to be getting better and better horses each year. I've already backed Diamond Harry for the RSA Chase at the Festival and James De Vassey strikes me as a sporting bet in what is obviously a very competitive handicap hurdle.

Tartak £25w £15pl @ 16/1 in the Paddy Power.
James De Vassey £20win £10pl @ 10/1 in the Greatwood.

Breeders Cup

I think I may chance Rip Van Winkle this evening at Santa Anita. I'm not sure about O'Brien's ability to recognise when a horse has gone but I do trust him to get a horse who's had the sort of problem's Rip has had to the track and ready to run for his life. I've seen a few of Zenyatta's races on Youtube and she does look top class, but how good are the American fillies she's beat? Ability wise it's more likely she's on a Bank's Hill kind of level (late120's) than a Zarkava (early 130's) and ultimately even if she is in the latter's league a top form RVW would likely beat her. I'd have liked him to have been more impressive at Ascot but I guess the trainer left a bit to work on.

I'm not interested in backing him at British prices but he is a bet at 3/1 or above on the American tote. I won't know the price until after the race so:

£60win @ 3/1 or
£70win @ better than 3s.

My internet at home is down at the moment (posting from work) so will update when I can including summing up this flat season. I will keep the blog going during the Jumps.

Arc

I was so worked up for the Arc because much was riding on ith that I forgot to posts my bets before the race. Didn't help that I was working I suppose. Anyway, i'd already mentioned that I had Fame and Glory so it's not an after-timing post.

Fame and Glory £150win @ 9/1
Cavalryman £25win @ 14/1
Stacelita £35win @ 7/1
Youmzain £30place @ 11/2

Champions Day

Bit late for this as they're going down to the start for the Champion Stakes but I have bets in a couple of races.

First off I have Never on Sunday and Fame and Glory in the Champion and then Darley Sun and Fair Along in the Cesarewitch. No time to explain my resons really apart from to say that Never on Sunday ran a cracker at Royal Ascot and that I think this course will suit him. The O'Brien trained favourite is pretty much a bit of cover as I backed the French colt before the latter was declared for the race.

In the Ces i've always had a soft spot for Fair Along and Darley Sun stands out a mile on the weights. Bad stats means he's available at a backable price.

Never on Sunday £25win £15 Pl @ 9/1
Fame and Glory £40win @ 7/4

Fair Along £20ew @16/1
Darley Sun £25win @ 7/1

PS - I forgot to post my Arc bets - they're to follow.

Cambrideshire

This weekend is my favourite of the whole flat season and as well as having a few bets lined up for the Arc I also have one for Newmarket's big handicap tomorrow.

Sirvino was most impressive when winning the John Smith's at York in June and has been kept fresh for this by his trainer. I always look for a horse that's won over a mile and a quarter for this 9f race over the Rowley Mile and my fancy qualifies on that score and hopefully can follow up like Pasternak did a few years back also at around 10/1. The second at York, who I backed, has run well in a couple of Group races since and overall the form has a solid look to it.

Sirvino £50win @ 105/10

QE11

Short notice this but I did suspect that Delegator may drift to a backable price for this and i'm correct. This morning they were going 8/13 Rip Van Winkle and 9/4 Delegator at Corals and those prices looked the most accurate to me. The Godolphin animal is over 3/1 at Betfair now and he has to be backed at this price.

Delegator £50win @ 41/10

Portland

I put down Johannes as a horse to follow after his win at the Glorious Goodwood meeting. Unfortunately my biggest failing as a punter is a lack of dilligence sometimes. He ran at Ripon on 22nd Auguest but because it wasn't a major maeeting I missed it. He won by 2 lengths plus and would have been a bet at the 9/2 available in the morning. Downer.

Anyway, he runs in the Portland today and his win at the aforementioned Goodwood (an easy 6f) suggests that the 5 and a half furlong trip of this big handicap won't be too much of an inconvenience.

Johannes £50win @ 9/1

St Leger

Not a big fan of this race to be honest as i've only backed the winner once (User Friendly)

But anyway, I think we have an angle with which to attack the contest this year. Basically, I don't like Kite Wood's form and I think the Voltigeur, in which Monitor Closely and Father Time were first and third is pretty worthless given that Harbinger and Alwaary ran way below form. So, that leaves us with Changingoftheguard who ran a terrific race in the Ebor given that he was left at the gate when the stalls opened and had to keep battling through horses, waeaving his way this way and that. The horse is tough, battle hardened and will stay. I make him a decent bet at 100/30. Mourayan has form that ties in with Fame and Glory and although i'd like softer ground for him, he is a plodder who will nevertheless relish the step up in trip. Not convinced he'll win but he's a sporting wach way selection.

Changingoftheguard £40win @100/30
Mourayan £2oEway @ 82/10

5th September

I've already mentioned my ante-post wager on High Standing for today's Sprint Cup at Haydock. I've had a slight top up and also covered on Finjaan. I feel Tregoning's animal may improve for the drop back in trip (he has a very sprint orientated pedigree) and I see him as the main danger.

Over at Leopardstown for the Irish Champion Stakes i'm on Fame and Glory again. I punted him at 7/4 a few weeks with the hope that Sea the Stars wouldn't run but that isn't the case. Luckily the star of the season was a doubt up until today and Betfair lay merchants gave me some 5s for a small amount - since topped up.

Fame and Glory £70w @ 7/4
Sea the Stars £25w @ 37/10

High Standing £40w @ 11/2
Finjaan £25w @ 56/10