Festival:Novice Chasers

Overturn

The Novice Chasers look a bit of a mixed bunch this year, with the RSA in particular looking a bit threadbare in terms of quality.

In saying that though the Arkle remains one of the most exciting races of the week and I think nowadays it rivals the Arc as my favourite race of the whole year. At the start of the season I was of the opinion that Simonsig was way too short at around 4/1 for this seasons renewal for all his undoubted promise and I wanted to be against him. The reason I chose Arvika Ligeonniere rather than Overturn as the creature to take him on was price related. The Mullins horse was 10/1 after his impressive rout in the Drinmore at Fairyhouse in early December whilst Overturn was 8s after his win in a beginners chase at Sandown in November. However, Simonsig has looked so imperious in his two outings thus far that I'm of a mind to just leave the race now with that small bet on Arvika. Maybe a slight top up as the Festival approaches and the hype for Simonsig increases. It's hard to see the grey not winning.

Another grey heads the RSA market but I have rather different thoughts regarding Dynaste's chances. He's done nothing wrong thus far in his chasing career but RSA could be a slog this year with lots of staying types in the race and I just don't think the race will suit him. All his wins have come in small fields with relatively modest gallops before a bit of a sprint to the line. I'm happy to take him on with Boston Bob at a double figure price. He headed the market at the start of the season with Fingal Bay (who I did prefer at that stage) and although he has had just the one outing and was only workmanlike in that victory the ground was desperate at Navan that day and he will come on loads for it. He has an entry at the weekend before his Festival prep in the PJ Moriarty at Leopardstown on the 9th Feb and I fully expect him to be in the 4 or 5/1 price range after that date. The race seems choc full of plodders and a horse who looks all wrong for the race. I'm confident Boston Bob will go close.

The Jewson that opens Thursday's card has gone to the Irish since it became a graded contest a couple of years ago and I'm hoping that trend continues as my selection is trained by Jess Harrington. Oscar's Well was a high class hurdler who has taken well in the main to fences this season but like a few horses I have on my Cheltenham portfolio I believe the better ground he is likely to encounter in March will suit him far more than the horrible winter ground we have seen most of this Jumps season. But for a blunder at the last hurdle in the 2011 Neptune Oscar's Well may well already be a Festival winner and he ran a good race in the Champion Hurdle last year as well. Over fences he's looked a quick, agile jumper most of the time (he did come down on his second start in bottomless ground) and I think two and a half miles on decent ground will be the making of him as a novice chaser. His trainer has hinted it's possible he could miss the Festival for a run in the Powers Gold Cup at Fairyhouse and for that reason part of my bet is now with Victor Chandler and his non runner free bet concession.

Lastly, the picture up top is of Overturn rather than one of the horses I actually have in my Ante-Post list because Sprinter Sacre apart he's my favourite horse in training. This despite the fact that I have never won a bean on him.

Arkle:

Trifolium £10w @ 27/1 (NR)

Arvika Ligeonnaire £15w @ 10/1

RSA:

Our Father £10w @ 14/1

Boston Bob £25w @ 10/1

Fingal Bay £60w @ 13/1 (NR)

Jewson:

Oscar's Well £30w @ 14/1 and £20w @ 10/1 (NRFB)

Doubles:

Boston Bob (RSA) and Flemenstar (Gold Cup) £10 @ 8/1 and 7/1

Boston Bob (RSA) and What a Name (1000 Gns) £10 @ 10/1 and 14/1

Captain Conan (Jewson) and Silviniaco Conti (Gold Cup) £10 @ 6/1 and 9/1

Oscar's Well (Jewson) and Coneygree (AB) £10 @ 10/1 and 8/1