This rearranged fixture is one of my favourite races of the jumps season although it is usually devilishly difficult to find the winner. To be honest it's not the highest quality of renewals and the best bit of form seems to be the Hennessy/Badger Ales line which ties in short priced favourite Teaforthree and the Nicholls trained Michel le Bon. The former's credentials are very solid - he won the four miler at the Festival and ran well enough at Newbury on his first run of the season but at 3/1 he is very short and I think Michel le Bon has a similar chance on the book but is more than double the odds. For a ten year old he is lightly raced and has had injury issues but ran on really well in the aforementioned Badger Ales to finish around three lengths behind The Package. That horse ran in the Hennessy off an eight pound higher mark and managed to get in the frame so the form looks solid.
Of course 3m5f on heavy ground over this undulating track is a huge and unique test and I can't be positive my selection will thrive on it for all I like his form claims. It comes down to whether or not I'm willing to chance him at the price and at 9/1 I am because it does look a sub standard renewal and he looks a horse with a decent prize in him off 144.
Welsh National:
Michel le Bon £60w @ 9/1 (lost)
(+888.9)
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