04/04/2014

Aintree - 5th April

I have three horses backed already for tomorrow's National and I'm gonna add a couple during the race in running.

Double Seven has been strong in the market all week since Tony McCoy confirmed he rides him. I backed him in March after a horse he beat at Limerick in October won the Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival. He's a horse with plenty of wins to his name over the last year or so and he's shot up the handicap but I'm happy with that 33/1.
I had The Rainbow Hunter in mind for the race after he impressively won a big handicap at Doncaster in January. He had an operation to aid his breathing before the turn of the year and again, I got in early at a good price. He unseated in the race last year but that win at Doncaster suggests he's a better horse now.
Rocky Creek is a flat track horse who jumps well and stays. The main knock against him is his lack of experience over fences but the race is different now since the fences were hollowed out and I'm willing to ignore some of the old stats that a lot of punters sweared by. His run in the Hennessy reads well and I think he'll love this test.

I backed Teaforthree last year when he just failed to get home and I think his chance comes down to how his ridden in terms of conserving his stamina. In the 2004 National Hedgehunter led right from the get go setting a decent pace but he paid the price and fell at the last when beaten. The next year he came back and was held up just off the pace, only taking over after Clan Royal was mugged at second Becher's. He went on to be one of the most impressive winners I've seen in the great race and I just wonder if Rebecca Curtis has the same tactics in mind for her horse tomorrow. With that in mind I am going to put a bid up on Betfair for about 18/1 (he's currently around 11/1) once the race starts. I'm going to do the same with Tidal Bay but for differing reasons. He's bound to get outpaced at some point in the race and whilst his odds of 20/1 make a certain amount of appeal I reckon 28+ will be available at some stage. I think the gentler version of the race will suit him (he was a non factor in 2011) and I just have to get involved given his crazy looking mark. He's a recent(ish) proper* Grade 1 winner being asked to give less than a stone to the likes of Walkon and Balthazar King.

EDIT 5/4
Bet365 have a pretty amazing concession this morning. Back anything each way in the big race and you get half your stake back. So I've found another couple of horses. Alvarado's win at Cheltenham in the Autumn reads well (he had Monbeg Dude in behind) and he has a nice racing weight. Prince de Beauchene has dropped down the handicap in the last few months and is worth a bet with this concession given his liking for good ground and his win over these fences a couple of years back.

Grand National:
Double Seven £10ew @ 33/1 (5pl) (3rd)
The Rainbow Hunter £10ew @ 40/1 (5pl) (bd)
Rocky Creek £10ew @ 20/1 (6pl) (5th)
Prince de Beauchene £10ew @ 25/1 (5pl) half stake returned (lost)
Alvarado £10ew @ 33/1 (5pl) half stake returned (4th)

Teaforthree £20 bid IR @ 18/1 (fell)
Tidal Bay £20 bid IR @ 28/1 (not matched, cancelled as he was brought down)

*Unlike the rubbish Grade 1's at this meeting Tidal Bay beat Sir Des Champs, Flemenstar and a top form First Lieutenant in his.

(-891.25)

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