16/04/2014

Newmarket - 17th April

An important card at headquarters tomorrow with the Craven Stakes being the highlight. My ante-post position on Toormore looks a bit fragile with Kingman putting down a very impressive marker last Saturday. He'll be a hard nut to crack in a fortnight or so and it seems the main obstacle in front of him is the possibility of fast ground. John Gosden naturally wants to look after him given the horse's injury last year and he has said he won't run if conditions aren't suitable. Newmarket will be most keen not to lose the horse to the French version of their Classic and might water to ensure good ground. I hope it doesn't come to that, to me good rattling fast ground is what the 2000 Guineas should be run on. Artificially watering a surface to ensure a certain amount of cushion is understandable for National Hunt racing but not for the flat.

Toormore faces four rivals and Be Ready looks his main danger. This Godolphin animal had one of the best posed portraits in Timeform's recent Racehorses annual and I was contemplating backing him for the 2000 as well until Kingman's display in the Greenham. It should be an informative race.

The Earl of Sefton Stakes is half an hour after the Craven and it's a race with a good betting shape. Just the Judge heads the market but this is her first time up against colts and she seems a bit short at around 3/1. Fencing is second choice but holds that position on trainer form rather than actual form and is easily swerved. Mull of Killough won this event last season and although it looks a slightly better renewal this time around he carried a penalty then that he doesn't now and at 11/2 I think he rates a fair bet. He has a very good record on the Rowley Mile (three wins from five runs) and looks just about the best horse in this race. His recent form has been abroad (Dubai in the spring and Australia last Autumn) and he ran one or two really good races during his spell down under. At eight years of age I do worry something might progress past him but there's no question he's overpriced in this event.

Earl of Sefton Stakes:
Mull of Killough £40w @ 11/2 (won)

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