31/01/2016

Ante-Post

    Yesterday was a bit of a kick in the teeth, two bets - both pulled up. I probably overrated Charmix quite a bit and although opposing horses unproven in conditions is normally a good idea their class has to be considered - although Yanworth did step up markedly yesterday. Another thing is I find it a lot easier to work out if a horse will stay or improve for a trip on the level as flat pedigrees are easier to read. I was more disappointed with O'Faolains Boy who should have been right there on form. I cannot understand why the trainer wouldn't have him ready for the race and her runners are to be avoided in future.

    Anyway, Festival clues abounded, both at Cheltenham and Doncaster. In the Argento Djakadam's fall probably ensures Vautour runs in the Gold Cup as his owner surely won't risk being solely represented by a horse who has fallen twice at the track. This is pleasing not just because I have Vautour as nice cover to Don Poli in the blue ribband, it also makes the Ryanair a very juicy betting race. Apache Stronghold is out now but Valseur Lido is an able substitute in my portfolio given their close form ties and I think Vibrato Valtat will improve for a step up in trip. He's been finishing legless recently chasing two milers and a more patient ride over further will see him finish his races with more gusto in my opinion.

    I was initially a tad disappointed in Shantou Village but having re-watched the race three or four times it appears he just bumped into a monster on the day. He more than likely goes for the Albert Bartlett now and I actually think he's the likeliest winner of that race. I wasn't that impressed with Barter's Hill, he looks all over a chaser to me, and under more suitable underfoot conditions make Shantou Village still good value at 10/1. I have topped up.

    Desoto County went into my tracker after his fine run last time out at Leopardstown. He was disadvantaged by the position he was put in during most of that race and looks well handicapped off that effort and has a big one in him - hopefully at Newbury, but I'll also back him at Cheltenham if he makes the trip.



Betfair Hurdle:
Desoto County £10w @ 12/1

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Supreme Novices' Hurdle:
Altior £20w @ 7/1

Champion Hurdle:
Peace and Co £25w @ 122/10
Nichols Canyon £10ew @ 13/2 NRNB

Neptune:
Shantou Village £10w @ 16/1

RSA:
Native River £5w @ 28/1

Queen Mother:
Felix Yonger £20ew @ 33/1 NRNB

JLT Novices' Chase:
Sizing John £20w @ 132/10

World Hurdle:
Whisper £15w @ 13/1
Windsor Park £20w @ 14/1 NRNB

Ryanair:
Apache Stronghold NR £18
Champagne West £5w @ 54/1
Valseur Lido £25w @ 13/1 NRNB
Vibrato Valtat £10w @ 16/1 NRNB

Triumph Hurdle:
Gibralfaro £5w @ 25/1

Albert Bartlett:
Shantou Village £25w @ 116/10

Gold Cup:
Don Poli £30w @ 94/10 and £35w @ 64/10 NRNB
Vautour £10w @ 12/1 and £10w @ 8/1 NRNB
Holywell £5w @ 43/1

Any Race:
Shantou Village £10w @ 10/1

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