I'm kind of in Flat mode at the moment so won't be getting heavily involved in this meeting but the two mile Champion Chase tomorrow has a cracking betting shape to it so I'm having a go.
Sizing Europe is a top class two miler who is by far the most likely winner of the race but he has disappointed at this Festival before after running at Cheltenham and at odds-on I feel he must be taken on. Big Zeb is if anything even worse value as his form has gone down hill this year and like the favourite he is a horse who likes good ground. It has been tipping it down in Ireland recently and the ground is going to be very deep. I think this race is primed for a shock and I have two at big prices to take the old stagers on with.
Realt Dubh goes on heavy ground, has run well at Punchestown in the past and is a fresh horse having only had one run to his name this season. That was at Cheltenham where he finished some way behind the leaders but having a pipe opener in a championship event is far from ideal and at 14/1 I think he is a good price tomorrow.
Gauvain has his conditions in this. In small field uncompetitive events this horse has beaten the likes of Somersby and Master Minded in the past and at 25/1 he's a solid bet. He's German bred by a sire Sternkoenig who acted on ground with plenty of juice in it and once again I feel this animal has been underestimated. Nick Williams hasn't had a great season but I'd love to see him end it with another Grade 1 triumph.
Champion Chase:
Realt Dubh £25w @ 14/1 (lost)
Gauvain £25w @ 25/1 (lost)
(-480)
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