Classics - Ante-Post

I've been doing a bit of video studying over the last few days and as well as adding an interest in the 2000 Guineas to my bet on Discourse on the fillies race I have had my first bet on the Derby.

Godolphin have stated that they see my selection as more of an Oaks type, a comment that doesn't tally with her pedigree at all. She's by Street Cry out of a Dixieland Band mare. Neither of those two stallions are particulary associated with being massive stamina influences. Indeed, Carlton House, last year's Derby favourite  was a Street Cry son out of a Bustino mare (big stamina influence) and he was better at 10f. Her price did drift a tad when these views were aired and I have topped up. Last year's 1000 Guineas heroine Blue Bunting was also thought to be more of an Oaks filly but she still actually ran, and won, at Newmarket.

In the 2000 Guineas the market looks very strange. The three who head it are screaming to be taken on. Camelot looks a most promising individual but he's a Montjeu and that stallion (RIP) just doesn't get milers. He looks weak at this stage, especially with the trainer saying he's not guaranteed to run in the race. In the face of this a couple of horses have been well backed recently and follow him in the betting. We have Top Offer, a Roger Charlton entry who has only ran once, in a Newbury maiden. And Most Improved - a Brain Meehan colt who was third in a very average looking Dewhurst. They are both trading at single figures based on hype and work whispers. Gotta be taken on.
The horse I've backed is the French trained Abtaal. He won the Prix Thomas Bryon most impressively last October at Saint-cloud. Now he did have the run of the race that day, setting a slowish pace before quickening in the straight. But the manner of his success was quite taking and the form was franked subsequently. He's 20/1 for the race and I think there are a couple of reasons why he's that big. 1) He's trained overseas and 2) Is he a definite runner? Well, he's owned by Sheikh Hamdan who is based over here so I see that as a positive. Abtaal runs in the Prix Djebel at Maisons-Laffitte this afternoon and I'm hoping for a win and a performance that books his ticket to Newmarket.

As for Epsom, Camelot is going to be a tough nut to crack as he looked a horse of considerable promise in the Racing Post Trophy last season but I think the Dewhurst winner, Parish Hall, is overpriced at a little over 20/1. This horse has a pedigree ladled with stamina being by the Galileo stallion Teofilo out of a Montjeu mare. It was a  very average renewal of our premier 2yo contest that he won but the fact that he was competitive at all given his genes is a very good sign for his 3yo campaign.

2000 Guineas:
Abtaal £20w @ 20/1

1000 Guineas:
Discourse £40w @ 85/10

Derby:
Parish Hall £10w @ 21/1

EDIT: 06/04

Abtaal ran well enough in the Djebel, beaten a neck by French Fifteen (who was behind him in the Byron in a race where he didn't settle at all well.) There are doubts about my selection running at Newmarket now and he has drifted in the betting, but French Fifteen is available at 14/1 on Betfair and that price is taken. Both horses were tenderly ridden but came away from a reasonable field.

2000 Guineas:
French Fifteen £20w @ 14/1