26/03/2012

Grand National

Just a couple of weeks until the big race and although it doesn't hold the place in my heart it did when I was a novice punter I still like to have a dabble. My strategy is to pick out four horses and have one average sized bet bet divided by four.
I had a tenner on Chicago Grey back in November. He won the four miler at Cheltenham last season and whilst he's looked out of sorts this year the National is his target and his run behind Rubi Light last time out was encouraging. I don't normally bother each way in this race but this horse does tend to get behind in his races and I can see him running on at the finish but maybe not catching the leaders.
Becauseicouldntsee fell at the second last year but I can forgive that. He also ran well in the 2010 version of the race Chicago Grey won at the Festival in 2011 and he went on my short list for this renewal of the National when just failing in the Fulke Walwyn on the Thursday of Cheltenham this year. Sunnyhillboy outstayed him up the hill that day but that horse isn't as food a jumper as Becauseicouldntsee and is a lot shorter in the market.
Cappa Bleu has the same connections as State of Play, a horse who has been placed in the National a number of times. The former is a stouter stayer though who ran really well in the Welsh National back in December. He's in good form this year and handles decent ground.
The shortest price of the four I've backed is Junior from the David Pipe yard. This horse is a good jumper with a bit of class who I just think will love the National fences. His form was boosted on Saturday and whilst I worry that he isn't that well handicapped I think this test will really suit him.

None of the market leaders really appeal. Prince de Beauchene is very short and doesn't strike me as a National type at all. Synchronised you couldn't rule out after he won the Gold Cup but I think he's best fresh and I think he might struggle with the fences given his lack of size. Last year's winner Ballabriggs is now too high in the weights as is West End Rocker who has gone up 12lbs for his win at the track in the Autumn. I'm happy with my four selections.

Chicago Grey £10w @ 25/1 and £10pl @ 54/10
Becauseicouldntsee £10w @ 26/1
Cappa Bleu £10w @ 20/1
Junior £10w @ 16/1

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