21/03/2012

Cheltenham Reflections/ Ante-Post Update

I had a very nice week and managed to turn my season around. I was over a Grand down before I went to Newbury in mid February and with a half decent Grand National meeting I'm hopeful I can finish in the green again.

Overall I'm still disappointed with the season I've had but I know where I went wrong and will endeavor to correct the mistakes I've made. I had a fantastic 2010/11 and feel that I was a bit too confident or even cocky going into this season. This transmitted itself in the volume of bets I placed. I normally have around 50 a Jumps season but this year I'll end up with nearly 70. Too many. I also overrated last year's novice chasers. Wayward Prince, Wishfull Thinking, Captain Chris, Time for Rupert, Medermit. These are animals I've backed on at least two occasions each and none of them have managed to win. I think this year's crop is better but I'll be more circumspect in 2012/13.


The picture above is on order and will shortly be on the living room wall. It isn't just the money when it comes to horse's like Sprinter Sacre landing a bet. I'd first backed him for the Arkle almost a year before and to have a long range position like that work is a great feeling. Simonsig was my other winner of the week and it's interesting to me that both these winners were in uncompetitive races. These are rare at Cheltenham but I have to say that my bets in the more fearsome races were decent as well. Medermit, For Non Stop and First Lieutenant were all placed at decent working men's prices and I think next year I'll be looking at having some each way doubles on bets like these. I've had Festivals in the past with few winners but a lot of places and I have to make these work for me. I've never been an each way punter truth be told but I think they do work when used in multiples. It's well known that they are one of the bookmakers least favourite bets to lay.
Last Sunday I dipped my toe into the ante-post market for next year's jamboree and have taken some 16s about Spirit Son for the Champion Hurdle.

Overall then a positive meeting, a few lessons learnt for the future and a general sense of well being that was not there in December and January. I feel positive going into Aintree and more importantly the upcoming Flat Season. I will confess that when I looked at the odds for the 2000 Guineas at the weekend I'd heard of maybe two of the animals listed. I am more familiar with the Fillies though, and have been watching videos of last year's big 2yo contests over the last day day or two and was taken enough with Discourse to open a position on her. Impressive in full flight, she won the Sweet Solera in the Summer despite pulling early doors. I also like her robust, scopey physique. She seemed to be Godolphin's number 1 in the Autumn judged on her being the main entry for the Fillies Mile before she suffered a slight setback. The stable look like they are on an upward curve with Zarooni at the helm and I see her wintering over here as a big positive as well. Ballydoyle have the favourite for the race in Maybe, but I wasn't overwhelmed watching her to be honest and I feel at bigger odds that my choice is a more backable filly from a stable with a better record in the race and she's less exposed also.

Grand National:
Chicago Grey £10w @ 25/1

1000 Guineas:
Discourse £20w @ 82/10
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Champion Hurdle:
Spirit Son £15w @ 16/1

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