This is the fourth season that I've followed the Nick Williams stable and whilst overall it's been a positive experience (Diamond Harry's Hennessy and James de Vassy's Lanzarotte Hurdle victories last year being the highlights) he's yet to get off the mark at the Festival and has had some painful near misses.
This year he runs:
Maljimar - Cross Country Chase
Swincombe Flame - Mares Hurdle
Alfie Spinner - National Hunt Chase
Guavain - Champion Chase or Ryanair
Horatio Hornblower - Bumper
For Non Stop - Jewson
Urbain de Sivola - Triumph
Diamond Harry - Gold Cup
Maljimar. That name can only conjure images of him getting chinned on the line by Wichita Lineman in the William Hill Trophy in 2009. One of the most painful losses you could possibly have. I backed him for the Cross Country last year where he never really got into it and with it looking a harder race this time I'll be swerving the old boy I'm afraid. I can't have Swincombe Flame either given how huge a step up in class she faces.
Alfie Spinner I do fancy though and have backed him for the four mile novice chase which opens day two. Alfie ran his best ever race last time out against some high class novices at Ascot where his jumping looked really mature and assured. He's one of the better animals in this race but naturally the step up in trip is a concern. Now, I can't really read jumping pedigrees with the same level of confidence as I can flat ones but I'm hoping Bustino being his damsire is as good a sign for a jumper as it is for a flat animal with regards stamina. We'll see. This is always a race with a lot of runners and a lot of dead wood and I'm confident Alfie's sound jumping will see him in contention even if his stamina starts to ebb away. For that reason the bet is each way.
Guavain isn't the sort of horse who'll be suited to the hustle and bustle of a Festival race so will be passed over and Horatio Hornblower I just don't know enough about. I follow the stable but I don't back his runners willy nilly. I like to have a certain familiarity with a horse's form before getting involved.
For Non Stop falling at the last when booked for second in the Coral Cup last year is another painful Williams related memory but this horse has impressed this season as a novice chaser in some hot looking contests. His run behind Al Ferof at Sandown earlier in the year really pleased me and he stayed on really well last time out at Newbury when winning his Grade 1. The Jewson looks competitive and we still don't know who'll run in the race but I'll be backing him on the day, on the course.
Onto the final day of the Festival and Urbain de Sivola. One of the highest rated Triumph Hurdle runners at present and one with decent form lines with some of the main protagonists but one who is also trading at over 20/1. This is down to doubts about him running. Nick has indicated that he'd prefer soft ground for an animal with a proper jumping pedigree and therefore he is far from certain to run. Fingers crossed for more rain. Lastly Diamond Harry in the Gold Cup. His trainer has been far from positive in the previews I've come across and in all honesty he's hard to fancy. Not that that's stopped me backing him here in the past.
Anyway, my main Festival hope this year is Sprinter Sacre in the Arkle, but after that it would be to see Nick have his first Festival winner. Here's hoping it's not too far away and it's not Maljimar with me not having a penny on.
EDIT 5/3: Boylesports have just gone NRNB on the Triumph today so I have backed Urbain de Sivola with them.
National Hunt Chase:
Alfie Spinner £10ew @ 12/1
Triumph Hurdle:
Urbain de Sivola £20w @ 20/1 NRNB
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