Cheltenham Festival - Thursday

Another profitable day despite a few losers and the pleasing thing is the two horses that have gone in have been my two biggest bets.

Really looking forward to tomorrow as it's the day I'll be in attendance. Hope I wont be too warm in my new wax barbour jacket that I bought a bit cheekily with Sprinter Sacre winnings a week before he actually ran.

I think tomorrow's card is the hardest of the week but I have or will have bets in the three main races. The Jewson Novices' Chase kicks things off and I want to be with Peddlers Cross for this. I don't think there is anything wrong with this horse as has been suggested in some quarters recently. The trainer just realised he couldn't best Sprinter Sacre in the Arkle and has gone for the easier race. I think he has a big chance and McCain's form at the moment coupled with the horse's excellent Festival record appeal. There are a few dangers - Crystal Bonus looks a fine, up and coming chaser but his form is hard to quantify and Champion Court has ran well at the course more than once. They're the sort of horses I don't like enough to back but can't readily dismiss either. I don't think Sir Des Champ deserves his position as second favourite though. He beat Hidden Cyclone, a horse I backed at one point for the RSA, at Leopardstown a month or so ago but that horse didn't run anywhere near his level that day and I think the Mullins animal is overrated slightly. My betting strategy for the selection is a bit different as I'm not keen on steaming in at less than 4/1. He's worth a small bet at current odds but I also have him in a two doubles. One ante-post with Chapoturgeon and one at Betfair's SP with Somersby who takes in the Ryanair. Elsewhere in the race For Non Stop is a horse I like and whilst his form overall does not look quite good enough I think he is a good stayer in the making and I can see him flying up the hill. He comes from the stable I follow and I intend to have a small bet on him at the track.

For my money the Ryanair is the most competitive race of the whole week and that spells danger. I do think one of the keys to making money at the Festival and meetings on the flat like Royal Ascot is to somehow find bets on uncompetitive contests. Both my winners this week have barely been off the bridle after all. Races like this where anything up to 6 or 7 animals have a chance are hard to make money out of and I think you have to be involved ante-post so you at least have some mileage at the prices. I have done this with two horses and have mixed results. I've got just over 8/1 about Rubi Light and he's actually a couple of points higher on Betfair right now. Not a bet I'm proud of to be honest and like I said earlier in the week I think single figure prices for horses two and more months away from the Festival aren't the best idea. He has a chance naturally and has improved this year but he made a crucial mistake three out in the race in 2011 and you have to say with the ground being as fast this year it wouldn't be a surprise if he did something similar. On the plus side I've backed Medermit at 20/1 at 12/1 for this and can now top up at 8s with the knowledge that I have a good price. He's a horse I like a lot with good Cheltenham form and he'll be there or thereabouts. Of the others Somersby and Noble Prince are the main dangers but Riverside Theatre, who actually heads the market, is readily ruled out. I don't think he likes the track and is best fresh. Captain Chris runs here rather than the Gold Cup and he might surprise a few people. If Peddlers Cross wins the Jewson I'll have three running for me.

Lastly Big Buck's should win the World Hurdle but Oscar Whisky is the best horse he's faced, and as a speed horse a different type than the Legend normally devours. I backed him at 11/2 last week, have topped up at the same price today and Paddy Power are running a concession whereby if the horse you back is second to Big Buck's they refund your stake. That has to be taken advantage of. I will also put an in-running lay on him at shorter odds before the race. This lay will be kept at the off so may be matched during the race. Big Buck's has a tendency to hit a flat spot during his races and Oscar Whisky is a smooth travelling horse. The less said about my Mikael d'Haguenet position the better.

Win or lose I'm out to enjoy myself tomorrow. The first two days have ensured I will be in front for the meeting and that's all you can ask anyway. I also have a couple of nice bets on Friday to look forward to.

Jewson:
Peddlers Cross £25w @ 37/10 (lost)
Peddlers Cross and Chapoturgeon (Foxhunters) £10dbl @ 9/2 and 5/1
Peddlers Cross and Somersby (Ryanair) £10dbl @ Betfair SP
For Non Stop £25w @ best price on course (lost)
Sprinter Sacre (Arkle) and For Non Stop £10dbl @ 5/4 and 8/1

Ryanair:
Rubi Light £20w @ 82/10 (lost)
Medermit £50w @ 12/1 (lost)

World Hurdle:
Oscar Whisky £60w @ 11/2  (lost)
Oscar Whisky £30w @ 9/2 (Stake back if second to Big Buck's)
Mikael d'Haguenet £15w @ 34/1 and £10w @ 72/10 (w/o Big Buck's) (lost)


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