I've had a poor start to the flat season but feel confident heading into Royal Ascot. The Fugue was an unlucky loser in the Oaks, she was the best filly in the race, and if she'd enjoyed an easier passage I'd have had a nice payout on the double I had her in with Camelot. So I'm hitting the bar but not getting the ball in the net as yet. It's only a matter of time though.
The Royal Meeting starts next Tuesday and I have a couple of bets lined up already. I think the opening day will all be about Frankel and like most racing fans I can't wait to see him in action. It doesn't look a great day for betting however but the Hunt Cup on Wednesday does unearth a horse I'm quite keen on. Captain Bertie was a humdrum handicapper last year as a 3yo but being gelded seems to have been the making of him. In the spring Mile at Doncaster he met so much trouble in running (the field bunched together in a rather unusual way - most straight mile handicaps are more spread out) that he was well out of shot when he got a run finally and finished like a train. I didn't back him when he ran again at Newbury as the ground was on the soft side but he won very nicely nevertheless. The horse in second that day, Fury, is verging on Group class and won a handicap under similar conditions two starts later having gone up five pounds in the meantime. What I liked about Captain Berties run at Newbury was that he went into the lead two furlongs from home and repelled his challengers. I think that's a sign of a horse in rude form and one with plenty in hand of the handicapper. He's 12/1 for Wednesday's contest and I think that's very fair. The other market leaders seem priced up on trainer identity or are a bit exposed.
My second bet so far is in the Diamond Jubilee over 6f on the Saturday. It's a bit of a reach as Black Caviar looks an absolute monster but the French filly Moonlight Cloud is overpriced on Betfair at around 12/1 and I've had a little on her. She came over to Britain twice last year and was luckless on both occasions. In the Guineas her trainer wanted her loaded last but she was bundled in at the start of the process. Mr Head called this "a disgrace" and blamed the started for her poor showing. Later on in the year at Ascot she missed the break over course and distance and by the time she got going Deacon Blues had flown and sewn the race up. Carrying a penalty in the Prix Palais-Royal first time out this season she won impressively for all that her opponents weren't up too much. If Black Caviar fails to run to form my selection is the likeliest animal to benefit the most but I will be adding a place element to my position nearer the day.
EDIT: 16/6 - I have added a couple of bets since originally posting this update. Opinion Poll in Thursday's Gold Cup is the first. Watching last year's race one gets the impression he would have been a lot closer to Fame and Glory if he'd taken closer order as they swung into the straight. The selection lost no ground in the last two furlongs of that race and is in very good form this year. It could be argued the Godolphin horse has even improved and at a little over 6/1 is a good price for the race for all that the Ballydoyle favourite is respected. The other is Reliable Man in the Prince of Wales. It's a bit of a stretch this one but at 14/1 in a race where one or two may yet drop out I think this soft ground horse has a good chance of being placed at least. He tired badly in a pipe opener in the Ganay and last time out the 9f of the d'Ispahan was totally against him. Especially with the lack of pace. This animal has a stayers pedigree but 12f performers have a good record in the race. If Cirrus Des Aigles doesn't run, and his drift on Betfair isn't a good sign, I think my selection has a similarish chance to Carlton House who is ten points shorter in the market. His trainer has stated that this race is his early season target and he's basically just a bit too big not to back.
Outside of Ascot I took a position early on in the Arc on Beauty Parlour. This filly excites me more than almost any other horse in training at the moment (Frankel apart I suppose) and runs in the Prix de Diane on Sunday. Ballydoyle horses are prominent in the betting for the race as you'd expect but St Nicholas Abbey isn't good enough to be priced in single figures and Camelot might go for the Leger. They have dominated the scene early on but come Autumn a lot of their best horses are over the top and they have yet to win the big race in Paris with a 3yo.
Prince of Wales Stakes:
Reliable Man £15ew @ 14/1
Hunt Cup:
Captain Bertie £20w @ 12/1
Gold Cup:
Opinion Poll £20w @ 62/10
Diamond Jubilee:
Moonlight Cloud £15w @ 12/1
Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe:
Beauty Parlour £15w @ 15/1
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Arkle:
Trifolium £5w @ 25/1
Champion Hurdle:
Spirit Son £20w @ 16/1
RSA Chase:
Fingal Bay £15w @ 10/1
Gold Cup:
Flemenstar £20w @ 12/1
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