Epsom - 2nd June

Another disappointing day today. I was particulary depressed with the ride The Fugue got in the Oaks. She was behind and got badly bumped in a slowly run race and just couldn't make up the ground she lost. I think she will eventually prove herself the best of the field over middle distances.

I think John Gosden may gain some form of compensation on Saturday though, but not in the Derby. I think his St Leger winner Masked Marvel is way overpriced in the Coronation Cup at around 10/1. Indeed on an albeit rather stretching it line of form through Sea Moon it could be argued he has the beating of odds-on favourite St Nicholas Abbey. He had the Stoute horse further behind him at Doncaster than SNA beat him in America in the Breeders Cup. Admittedly Sea Moon had a poor passage in the last Classic but I really don't see there being much difference at all between my selection and the O'Brien animal - Timeform rated them at 126 and 127 last season and Gosden's creature certainly has more scope.
So why the massive price differential? Well, St Nicholas Abbey did win this race last year but he was rather fortunate and didn't look 100% at home on the track - Masked Marvel was down the field in the following day's Derby but he received a bump coming round Tattenham Corner and he plainly showed himself a better horse than his finishing position may have suggested later in the season. The main reason he is a double figure price though is probably his last run, where he was disappointing in the Jockey Club Stakes at Newmarket. That race was run on ground with plenty of cut in it, something which does not suit the horse at all. His trainer has called that race an "expensive bit of work" that will undoubtedly blow away the cob webs. I do think the last run a horse has is somewhat overfactored lots of times in the odds bookmakers make for most given races and in my opionion Masked Marvel will give St Nicholas Abbey all he can handle tomorrow and is a big danger. Certainly more so that Beaten Up, who is way too short at 5/1 for all that he looks a horse of some promise. This is a big step up in class for him and the fact that Masked Marvel is comfortably the second best horse in the race means a proportion of my stake in the race is each way, even with that bet only paying two places.

As for the Derby, I'm gutted Parish Hall misses the race through injury and I'm left with a smallish bet on Camelot at 5/2. He should win but his odds are cramped and it's not worth topping up. The Derby for me is usually a race that is a lot easier to predict than the Oaks and I feel the mileage I have in Camelot's price, if only to a modest stake, coupled with the fact that I see Bonfire as his only legitimate danger mean that it's worth adding the Andrew Balding colt. I would however love to see the Camelot take this field apart en route to a meeting with Frankel later in the season - maybe in the Juddmonte over 10f. One can dream.

Coronation Cup:
Masked Marvel £20ew @ 10/1 and £20w @ 115/10 (lost)

The Derby:
Parish Hall £10w @ 215/10 (NR)
Camelot £30w @ 5/2 (won)
Bonfire £30w @ 56/10 (lost)


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