31/05/2012

Epsom - 1st June

I was enormously impressed with Vow's turn of foot when she won the fillies trial at Lingfield a few weeks back and took 10/1 about her for the Oaks that evening. She ran green when veering left but I feel that was immaturity rather than any inherent quirkiness that might effect her chances at Epsom tomorrow and I topped up at 6/1 a couple of days ago. Maybe isn't the market leader for the race anymore but at around 7/2 she's still rank bad value and her cramped odds make the race from a punting point of view. She travelled like a miler in the 1000 Guineas and I can't see her being suited to this mile and a half. The Fugue is the current favourite and I respect her chances enough to cover. She's bred to stay this trip and has enough of a chance to worry me. Of the others the Godolphin filly Kailani should go well but even though she has won this year already I vowed after the horror show of the Guineas that I wouldn't touch one of the stables for a big race unless he or she had the form categorically to go close. This is not the case here. The vibes are bad for Kissed from Ballydoyle who probably won't get her ground and the others all look much of a muchness. In summary I really like Vow, think her trainer is still underrated when it comes to Group races, and feel she's nailed on to at least place.

Vow £20ew @ 10/1 and £30w @ 6/1 (lost)
The Fugue £30dbl with Camelot (Derby) @ 3/1 and 4/6 (lost)


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