Guineas Thoughts

I'm very much looking forward to the first classics of the flat season and 2000 Guineas day in particular is one of my favourite days of the year. I got involved in both markets last month and so far so good really. All the horses I've backed are on target for the two races and I'm confident of a good start to the season. In the 2000 I am heavily against the favourite Camelot. His form doesn't warrant his short price, his pedigree strongly suggests he's need further to be seen at his best and even his trainer is a negative. Aidan O'Brien doesn't hard train his horses for the 2000 Guineas with so many races to follow in a long season and he admits that aiming St Nicholas Abbey at the race a couple of years back ruined the horse for the year. Camelot is from the same sire and won the same race impressively as a 2yo. He has to be taken on and with him taking so much of the market up at around 6/4 I have three to go to war with. I backed both Abtaal and French Fifteen for the race before they ran in the Prix Djelbel early in April and they both ran well enough in that contest given that it was being used as a pipe opener. Having that run in the bank could be a big factor on Saturday with the ground set to be riding on the slow side. These are young horses who will be racing in tiring conditions after all. Abtaal showed a smart turn of foot when winning the Prix Thomas Bryon last year at Saint-cloud from French Fifteen (who didn't settle at all well with the race being run at a slow pace) and as is the case with a lot of foreign contenders for races over here he and the horse he beat were being offered at over the odds for the race throughout the winter and spring. I accept that one of the reasons for this was the doubt over whether the 2000 or the Poulains was the Classic target but at big odds it's worth taking a punt. The excellent news is it looks very likely they will both be declared for the race on friday and I'm sitting on a couple of good prices and I have topped up since my initial bets. I have also backed Born to Sea for the race. This is a big heavy topped colt who will love the ground and is heavenly bred being a three parts brother to Sea the Stars. He got injured during his last race as a 2yo but looks a colt of some promise and is trained by one of the best in the business.



Onto the 1000 Guineas. I have both the front two in the market in this race. Maybe, who is pretty short now, I put in a double with Cirrus Des Aigles before the big meeting in Dubai at the end of March and with the first leg coming up I have a good position on her. Details of the bet is posted. I topped up on the filly at 9/4 after CDA won the Sheema.

I took just over 8s on Discourse in mid March and that bet stands as it is at the moment. Godolphin see her as more of an Oaks type but her pedigree somewhat contradicts this view. She's only had a couple of runs and with soft conditions underfoot likely now I can't say I'm very confident about her chances. I had hoped they were going to get a run into her but that hasn't happened.

2000 Guineas:
Abtaal £40w @ 16/1
French Fifteen £30w @ 145/10
Born to Sea £30w @ 11/1

1000 Guineas:
Discourse £40w @ 85/10
Maybe £35w @ 9/4 and £15dbl with Cirrus Des Aigles (Sheema Classic) @ 7/2 and 11/4