I was disappointed with Sea Moon's run yesterday, I'm still not sure how much of his poor placing was down to bad tactics and how much to me just over estimating his form/potential. But what's done is done and I do think the race yesterday opens up an opportunity with regard to the Arc. I'm always against animals who run in the King George when it comes to Paris in October and if you look at the odds as they stand now:
3/1 Camelot
6/1 Danedream
7/1 Nathaniel
10/1 St Nicholas Abbey
None of them appeal. Camelot is St Leger bound and his trainer has never won the race with a 3yo. The other three all ran yesterday and as I pointed out that is not ideal prep for the race. I've added the 3yo Valyra to my portfolio for the race. She's a lightly raced filly who was impressive in the Diane (she pulled clear with Beauty Parlour in a very good renewal) and she is bred to appreciate a mile and a half. As good a performance as it was for Danedream to bounce back and win the King George I don't think the form is super hot and she won't have the advantageous wfa allowance when she defends her crown in October.
Betfred Mile:
Bronze Angel £25w @ 168/10
Arc:
Beauty Parlour £15w @ 15/1
Orfevre £15w @ 18/1
Valyra £15w @ 16/1
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Arkle:
Trifolium £5w @ 25/1
Champion Hurdle:
Spirit Son £25w @ 14/1
RSA Chase:
Fingal Bay £30w @ 113/10
Gold Cup:
Flemenstar £40w @ 12/1
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1000 Guineas:
Newfangled £15w @ 16/1
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