Nationals

    The Irish National isn't a race I normally have a bet in but I really like the look of the top weight today, If In Doubt. This horse ran an absolute stormer in the RSA despite not jumping particularly fluently (he never does really, but then again he is trained by Phillip Hobbs who isn't short of scratchy fencers) and with a 5lb claimer on I think he's reasonably handicapped off effectively 146. He was pretty much as close to Don Poli at the finish at Cheltenham as he was at the top of the hill and today's trip shouldn't be an issue. The Irish National usually goes to a lower weighted animal, the last winner carrying 11st or more was Commanche Court who went on to finish second in a Gold Cup, so we can appreciate that this is a tough ask for a horse with If In Doubt's load today - especially as he's still a novice. However Fairyhouse is a tight track which should favour the higher weighted contenders. For those two reasons I make him a place bet only and I'm minimum staking him because he did have a hard race at the Festival and we saw with my bet yesterday how that can be a factor as well.

    I've completed my Aintree bets with a wager on Cause of Causes. He jumps well, is a thorough stayer and the main knock on him seems to be his age, but with the modification of the fences I'm not inclined to put much store in stats that have a large sample period drawn from the time when the fences were much tougher. Aside from a below par run in the Irish National last season this will be his first run in a handicap since he and Spring Heeled pulled clear in the Kim Muir at last year's Festival and I think both horses are still well handicapped with progressive profiles and have excellent claims on Saturday. The only thing putting me off Spring Heeled is his idiot trainer.

Irish National:

If In Doubt £25pl @ 52/10 (pu)

(-159.25)

Grand National:

Godsmejudge £10w @ 25/1 and £5ew @ 20/1

Rocky Creek £10ew @ 10/1 (5pl)
Cause of Causes £10ew @ 20/1 (5pl)