Royal Ascot - Tues

Tuesday's card at the Royal Meeting is most exciting with Frankel, Canford Cliffs and Goldikova all taking part. It's a great start to the meeting from a sporting point of view although I don't see any bets to be had. I did think at one point that the rain they had on Sunday might make a difference but it's a very quick draining track and I do remember laying back most of the bet I had on George Washington a few years ago in the QEII when it rained on the day only for that fast ground animal to sluice up.

Tomorrow then is a couple of hours of prime racing action to relish. I do have a couple of bets on the Wednesday however. I've already backed Eton Forever in the Hunt Cup and today I added Music Show in the Windsor Forest. She's a cracking price and I will post my thoughts on the second day's action tomorrow evening.

York - 11th June

A couple of days ago I posted this:

"I had a horse in mind for the Wokingham as well, an animal called Acclamazing. But he's only a 3yo and I don't think he'll get in the race. I'll be keeping my eye on him when he runs again - as long as it's over 6f."

Well, I didn't have to wait long as Acclamazing runs in the 3.15 at the Knavesmire tomorrow. He won a Newmarket Handicap very nicely by almost three lengths in April having gone into the lead inside the final furlong - one of the things I look for in handicappers to follow. He actually ran well in defeat over further at Ascot in his next race, a contest where he ran into trouble. That concerned me slightly when I saw he was drawn in stall number two tomorrow as he's a hold up horse but the stalls are in the centre of the course. I have to be honest, when it comes to handicaps I have horses in mind to follow and when they run I back them - I don't pay much mind to the opposition. This is because the handicaps I get involved in are usually competitive affairs and I'm backing at (usually) 8/1 plus and ultimately my punting history suggests this is an area I do well in.

Acclamazing £60w @ 8/1 (lost)


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Royal Ascot Thoughts

I'm very much looking forward to the Royal meeting that begins next week. From a sporting point of view it looks at this stage as the best Festival in year's with Frankel, Canford Cliffs and So You Think all scheduled to appear. From a betting point of view I like to look at the two big handicaps before concentrating on the weight for age contests. In many way this makes it the polar opposite of the way I approach Cheltenham.

Anyway, in the Hunt Cup on Wednesday I'm looking for animals who have won over a mile and ideally have proven themselves to be fast finishers - i'e have taken the lead in a race in the last furlong or so and won by a length or more. The Roger Varian trained Eton Forever did this in a race at Doncaster in April. Actually he took the lead more than a furlong out and won by over three lengths which isn't strictly ideal as he went up eleven pounds for this success. If the jockey had held onto him for longer and won by a length and a half say he wouldn't have gone up quite so much. So Eton Forever's handicap mark of 103 isn't brilliant but the form of that Doncaster race has worked out really well. Also, he ran in a listed race over course and distance later on in April and although he didn't run that well I'm not too bothered as it wasn't a handicap - I also like it when a horse I have an eye runs in an irrelevent race (a non handicap, or a handicap over a different trip) before the contest I have it mind to back him in as I think it keeps the price nice.


I had a horse in mind for the Wokingham as well, an animal called Acclamazing. But he's only a 3yo and I don't think he'll get in the race. I'll be keeping my eye on him when he runs again - as long as it's over 6f.

As mouth watering as the group races are nothing stands out from a punting point of view - although Planteur may be underestimated in the Prince of Wales as the hype on So You Think gathers momentum. The French horse may be better suited to the short straight at Ascot. I may be tempted at around 4/1.

Hunt Cup:
Eton Forever £20w @ 18/1

The Derby

Pretty upset Wonder of Wonders didn't win today. I felt I got the race just about right but couldn't account for the winner, who seemed to have little to recommend her. Never mind.

Anyway, onto the Derby. I've collected on the race already with Frankel not being declared and I feel the race has an open shape to it with the favourite being a very false price due to his connections. I also can't have Recital. He's second in the market at present but he's very inexperienced and looked a bit of a dodgy character in his last race. Not an ideal type for Epsom. So, I've added Native Khan to my ante-post bets on Pour Moi and Seville. I've already noted my reasons for backing those two but the Guineas third has a lot going for him as well. The Newmarket form was franked with Dubawi Gold only failing to win the Irish equivalent through bad jockeyship. He's bred to stay 12f and wasn't far behind Seville in the RP Trophy last Autumn. With the front two trading at such poor odds it's only natural that others further down the list will be more attractively priced and for that reason I have no problem going into the race with three arrows so to speak.

Frankel Laid @ 42/10 for £65 (NR)
Seville £40w @ 95/10 (lost)
Pour Moi £40w @ 57/10 (won)
Native Khan £40w @ 12/1 (lost)




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Oaks

I've already posted my thoughts on this race having backed Wonder of Wonders immediately after her victory in the Cheshire Oaks last month. She looks a progressive filly who will stay and she also has a pedigree to die for. At Chester the horse that was eventually second got first run on her but the winner soon got in the clear once she got into top gear in the straight and I feel she is better than the bare result suggest. Amongst her opponents I have to respect the claims of the favourite, the One Thousand Guineas winner Blue Bunting, a filly who is bred to improve for the step up in trip. However I thought that race was a strange affair this year with the powerful head wind making it a tough ask to stay the mile unless you were bred to stay a bit further. That said this isn't a bet where my main motivation is opposing the market leader - I was just really taken with my selection in her trial and think she's got a really good chance of being a special filly. I took 8/1 initially and have topped up a few times since.

Wonder of Wonders £80w @ 54/10 (lost)


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Derby/Oaks update

Well, we're just over a week away from the two big races and the biggest recent news is Andre Fabre's rining endorsement of Pour Moi's claims he says in today's Racing Post:

"All my Derby runners have been a disaster before, but Pour Moi is the hest chance I've ever had."

I think Fabre is the best trainer in Europe and with the favourite now a ridiculous price with all the hype surrounding him I have backed Pour Moi for the race.

In the fillies race Wonder of Wonders drifted slightly on Betfair last Sunday to 5/1 so I stepped in again.

Oaks:
Wonder of Wonders £70w @ 56/10

Derby:
Seville £40w @ 95/10
Pour Moi £30w @ 6/1
Frankel Laid @ 42/10 for £65

Temple Stakes

I'm quite excited about Overdose running in Britain for the first time today and he has drifted to 3/1 with a couple of bookmakers and I think that is worth taking. He's had an injury since he looked stunning when winning the voided race in France on Arc day a few years back. He only beat a moderate bunch on his return this year but for me the opposition today isn't up to much either. Kingsgate Native is most inconsistent and although he won this last year the horses behind him and Equino were a ropey bunch to say the least. The standard of sprinters the last few years has been pretty awful in my opinion and I really think Overdose could be a monster price.

Overdose £50w @ 3/1 (lost)


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Derby/Oaks update

With nothing coming out of the Musidora to concern me overmuch I have topped up my bet on Wonder of Wonders for the Oaks. I think she's still a cracking wager in a field that looks thin on quality.

I was happy with the way Seville ran in the Dante considering the trip and the gallop they went. Carlton House looks short to me now although I respect his claims. I virtually have a free bet with Frankel not running.

Oaks:
Wonder of Wonders £50w @ 58/10

Derby:
Seville £40w @ 95/10
Frankel Laid @ 42/10 for £65

Lockinge - Newbury

Today we have a fascinating renewal of the first Group 1 race of the season for older horses. Canford Cliffs and Dick Turpin are probably the best two animals that Richard Hannon has trained and he clearly has a preference for the former who is odds-on today. However, Dick Turpin has beaten him twice on straight tracks, including a victory in the Greenham on this course last year, and has had a run already this year. A win that seemed to indicated he has thrived from three to four. Canford Cliffs on the other hand hasn't run since winning the Sussex Stakes in July. So I make Dick Turpin a fair wager at 7/2. The rest aren't at the same level as these two, or if they are (Twice Over) they are running at too short a trip.

Dick Turpin £70w @ 7/2 (lost)


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Ante-Post Update

As impressive as Blue Bunting was in last weeks 1000 Guineas I was possibly more taken with Wonder of Wonders in the Cheshire Oaks with a view to the Epsom Oaks on June 3rd. Aidan O'Brien's filly has an amazing pedigree and is a fixture in my Tote ten-to-follow lists. At Chester the second horse got first run on her but once in the straight she flew and won going away, the runner-up flattered and the rest a fair way behind. She's a most progressive animal and I think Epsom will suit her, given it's long straight and galloping nature. She's a fair bet at 8/1 at the moment.

Also at Chester it was excellent to see St Nicholas Abbey return to the sort of form that made him the best 2yo in Europe in 2009. He didn't beat much in the Ormonde but looked as impressive in his nine length victory as Harbinger did last year. I've taken 16s about him for the Arc. It's a tad early I know to be betting on that race but the horse has all the ability in the world.

Oaks:
Wonder of Wonders £20w @ 8/1

Derby:
Seville £20w @ 10/1
Frankel Laid @ 42/10 for £65

Arc:
St Nicholas Abbey £10w @ 16/1

(I'm not following the O'Brien stable this year, it just seems that way :p)