Cheltenham Thoughts - 20th Feb

Pont Alexandre

Three weeks from today and we'll be right in the thick of the action. I cannot wait, but I approach this year's jamboree with more trepidation than last season. It's a bit strange that really because I'm having a much, much better season this time around but I haven't got a Sprinter Sacre to hang my hat on this time around and with the excessive non runner count I find myself almost in defensive mode. For that reason I am contemplating laying off a big chunk of the bet I have on My Tent or Yours in the opener. He'd be a fair winner if I left him alone but critically I have him in a couple of tidy doubles (added one with Zarkandar on Saturday because of my ever decreasing confidence in Grandouet) that will look awesome if he does win. I'll see how his price goes. The Supreme is one of the toughest races to work out and not helping is the fact that it's one of the few I've never backed the winner in.

Whatever happens this year I'll be changing my ante-post approach from 2013/14. I've been too quick to slam the money down on anything that half impresses simply because they were trading at double figure odds. I'll still be tucking in but with more restraint in future National Hunt seasons.

Cue Card kept the ball rolling on the winners on Saturday but he looks short at around 4/1 for the Ryanair now and I'd be confident First Lieutenant will outstay him up the hill if he is allowed to take his chance. Finian's Rainbow disappointed in the same race and I've virtually written him off now this season. Although saying that he could be interesting in the Melling Chase on fast ground if he misses Cheltenham. I've added Sizing Europe in the Ryanair in a double with Pont Alexandre for the previous day's Neptune. That horse is too short now to back outright but I think he'll have the measure of The New One in a fascinating looking renewal. The Mullins horse is bred to appreciate good ground and his action suggests he'll go on it fine. From a physique point of view no horse has impressed me more than The New One this season but I think he loses ground at his hurdles and he's one for the future over the larger obstacles and it wouldn't surprise me if he turned into another Denman or Sprinter Sacre - immense looking creatures who found one or two too good for them in their Novice Hurdles at the Festival but who then turned into top class chasers. Despite what I said about my ante-post approach changing or at least being modified in future seasons I will be chasing a price about The New One for the RSA in the summer. If Pont Alexandre beats him he could be trading at tidy odds. The Mullins horse has also been included in a double with Far West (Triumph). That horse looks a proper grinding galloper to me and his win on Saturday from River Maigue was achieved despite the conditions of the race, a contest that turned into a proper sprint for home as they entered the straight. The Triumph looks a good race this year with Our Conor very much respected as the likeliest winner after his recent demolition of a couple of good Mullins animals. I'd cover on him if Pont Alexandre wins the Neptune on the Wednesday.

I've added a position on Bostons Angel in the Cross Country on the opening day. He ran well to be second in December over course and distance and I feel he has a decent chance in this if the ground is good. He hasn't had the opportunity to run on decent ground since his win in the 2011 RSA (apart from a handicap hurdle in Oct 2012) and the improvement I expect from running on a decent surface should give him a good chance. At 12/1 he's a very fair price at present.

Lastly, and this isn't Cheltenham related, it was lovely to see Chicago Grey get his head in front again yesterday at Navan in the Red Mills. He's been a favourite of mine for a while and was unlucky to be brought down in last year's National. I have him at a very nice price for this year's renewal and he goes to Aintree with a good chance.

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Supreme:
My Tent or Yours £50w @ 6/1

Champion Hurdle:
Grandouet £55w @ 91/10

Arkle:
Arvika Ligeonniere £30w @ 11/1

Cross Country:
Boston's Angel £10w @ 12/1

RSA:
Boston Bob £35w @ 97/10
Our Father £10w @ 14/1

Bumper:
Pure Science £15w @ 16/1

Jewson:
Oscar's Well £35w @ 145/10 and £20w @ 10/1 (NRFB)
Arvika Ligeonniere £25w @ 10/1 (NRFB)

Ryanair:
First Lieutenant £25w @ 10/1 (NRFB)
Finian's Rainbow £25w @ 105/10

World Hurdle:
Reve De Sivola £15ew @ 10/1

Albert Bartlett:
Coneygree £130w @ 92/10

Gold Cup:
Sir Des Champs £15w @ 8/1

Non Runners - Total of £195 lost (Mainly Flemenstar, Fingal Bay, Spirit Son and Clondaw Kaempfer)

Doubles:
My Tent or Yours (Sup) and Simonsig (Arkle) £10 @ 20/1 and evs

My Tent or Yours (Sup) and Zarkandar (CH)  £15 @ 2/1 and 6/1

Overturn (ARK) and Grandouet (CH) £10 @ 4/1 and 7/1

Grandouet (CH) and Sir Des Champs (GC) £10 @ 12/1 and 6/1

Grandouet (CH) and Cue Card (RY) £10 @ 7/1 and 6/1

Grandouet (CH) and Divers (BGP) £10ew @ 7/1 and 33/1

Boston Bob (RSA) and What a Name (1000 Gns) £10 @ 10/1 and 14/1

Pont Alexandre (NEP) and Sizing Europe (Ryan) £10 @ 11/4 and 7/1

Pont Alexandre (NEP) and Far West (Triumph) £10 @ 11/4 and 6/1

Pure Science (Bumper) and Coneygree (AB) £10 @ 16/1 and 8/1

Captain Conan (Jewson) and Silviniaco Conti (Gold Cup) £10 @ 6/1 and 9/1

Oscar's Well (Jewson) and Coneygree (AB) £10 @ 10/1 and 8/1

Coneygree (AB) and What a Name (1000 Gns) £10 @ 12/1 and 4/1