Darlan (rip)
Much as I'm looking forward to the Festival watching Darlan's most unfortunate demise yesterday at Doncaster has taken the wind out of my sails a bit. He was such a grand looking animal and he could well have been going right to the top. Very sad and my thoughts are with his connections, particularly his jockey who has lost a number of top class horses in his career.
I've been a fan of Grandouet for a while now but lost no money on him last season when he missed the Festival as I was convinced Hurricane Fly was bombproof and pretty much a shoo in to defend his crown. That never happened of course and I think Henderson and Nicholls know how to get the horse beat now. A relentless gallop kind of takes the sting out of him and I believe we'll see a really fast run race five weeks from today. That being the case 2/1 about Hurricane Fly is very skinny and I'm very happy with my position on Grandouet who has a wicked turn of foot and ran a stormer in the International at Cheltenham in December. Before that race there were some people who thought he was a bit of a bridle ponce who was soft in a finish but his form with Overturn from the previous year's International was the best on offer over the smaller obstacles at the trip last season and unusually for a horse from his stable he's an underrated individual. After a year off on unsuitably deep ground he wasn't beaten far by Zarkandar who was race fit and getting weight. He found plenty up the hill and looked tough enough to me. I first backed Grandouet for this in November at 12s and have been topping up on occasion (including having a number of doubles involving the horse) ever since. He's a confident selection with the demise of his stable mate and the unfortunate retirement of another potential star in Spirit Son, who was my first choice for the race. I think Nicky deserves a change of fortune with his hurdlers.
I've been following the Nick Williams stable since the 2008/09 season and in the main it's been a profitable decision and I've been on a few of his better winners since the start of that season but the Festival has been a wash out. I still shudder at the memory of Maljimar's mugging on the line in what was the William Hill Trophy, a handicap on the opening day of the meeting. In Reve de Sivola though Nick has probably his best chance of a Festival winner since Diamond Harry was beaten by Mikael d'Haguenet and Karabak also in 2009. The absence of Big Buck's means the World Hurdle is wide open and Reve looks tailor made for the race. He has excellent form at Cheltenham and has won twice this season in good graded events. Naturally I'm a bit biased with this horse as I have backed him numerous times but he does look in good order and really a return to form by Peddlers Cross would be the only thing that would unduly worry me now. Incidentally the reason I decided to follow a stable was because of a hint in the Mark Coton book called 100 Hints for Better Betting. It's a good read with plenty of sound advice and I've included a link at the bottom of this post.
Champion Hurdle:
Grandouet £45w @ 9/1
Spirit Son £35w @ 13/1 (NR)
World Hurdle:
Reve De Sivola £15ew @ 10/1
Doubles:
Grandouet (CH) and Sir Des Champs (GC) £10 @ 12/1 and 6/1
Darlan (CH) and Coneygree (AB) £10 @ 4/1 and 8/1 (NR)
Overturn (ARK) and Grandouet (CH) £10 @ 4/1 and 7/1
Grandouet (CH) and Cue Card (RY) £10 @ 7/1 and 6/1
Grandouet (CH) and Divers (BGP) £10ew @ 7/1 and 33/1
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Hints-Better-Betting-Mark-Coton/dp/1871093678
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