So, onto the last day of the big meeting and although I've not had a good meeting at all from a punting point of view I have enjoyed it overall and I kind of know what when wrong. But those thoughts are for another day as we have some bets to go through.
I'm on the back foot already with a huge non-runner in Coneygree. I went a bit mad backing this horse during the winter but I was confident of laying back a portion of the stake I had invested as he was bound to trade short in running being such a free going front runner. His lameness earlier in the week was a blow.
In the Triumph I'm not convinced at all by Rolling Star towards the head of the market. He seems priced up on promise, hype and his trainer identity. In looking for a possible alternative Our Conor obviously stands out and in watching his last win at Leopardstown it's easy to be impressed but Diakali surely set the race up for him by setting too searching a gallop. Different tactics, or at least not blazing away too quickly if he leads surely gives that horse a chance of out running his price and he appeals more at 14/1 than his conqueror that day does at 10/3. We've seen this week that horses without Festival form - Pont Alexandre, My Tent or Yours and Dynaste - are worth taking on at short prices and with Mullins being in terrific form I think Diakali is a half decent each way poke, especially as Stan James are paying four places. Far West is the other to consider and he was in one of the numerous doubles I had during the week that went down. He's drifted to 5/1 because Nicholls has yet to have a winner but he hasn't had any quality at the meeting until now and Celestial Halo did run a smasher yesterday. I've put him in an each way double with Cotton Mill in the County. That horse has top notch form with My Tent or Yours and would have given Simonsig a race in the Neptune last year but for ducking out. Any rain will help given that the trip might be on the short side for him. Powers are paying five places in the race as well.
The Albert Bartlett I'm leaving alone now so onto the Gold Cup. Rain is forecast around mid day tomorrow so I'm not completely sure what my final position will be. I'm happy with my Long Run bet at 10/1 (also have him as the second leg in an each way double) as it's hard to see him out of the frame. He was most disappointing in the race last season but I'm of the opinion that the race he had at Newbury in February took more out of him than was ideal - he struggled to beat Burton Port - and it might have taken the edge off him.
He's a bit of a dour stayer nowadays and any rain would be nice.
I have a small bet on Sir Des Champs as well at 8s and was planning on topping up but worries about this forecast rain has me holding back. I'm going to wait and see and will update the blog when I've decided what to do. I also have a free bet (they're not really free it's more a second chance to get your money back) after First Lieutenant was second in the Ryanair and I might use that on last year's Jewson winner. He loves the track and good ground and I do believe Bob's Worth is one to take on given his lack of runs this season.
The Foxhunters is a race I don't think I've ever backed in before but it looks a two horse affair and Chapoturgeon seems overpriced at 5/1. The favourite will be tough to beat but there was little between them last year and as he gets older the selection should be acquiring more stamina.
Lastly I have Kid Cassidy as the second leg of an each way double and although he's a bit of a nutjob he has talent and seems to have been laid out for the Grand Annual.
More to follow tomorrow.
EDIT 15/3: The forecast rain which is due around mid day at the track has changed things for me somewhat. I think you'll need a proper stayer in this now and I've swung more to Bob's Worth than Sir Des Champs partly with going conditions in mind but also because Tony McCoy is now on the latter and that has affected the price. Last night on Betfair they were going 3.8 Bob's Worth and 5.5 SDC, as I type it's now 4.2 and 5.1. I'm leaving the Mullins horse alone and I've backed the favourite. I've taken 4.2 and had my free £25 bet on him at 11/4. The value I have on Sir Des Champs and Long Run ante-post for all that the former is too short now means I'm still in a good position in the race.
Triumph:
Diakali £20ew @ 14/1 (4pl) (4th)
Albert Bartlett:
Coneygree (NR) £130
Gold Cup:
Al Ferof (NR) £5
Flemenstar (NR) £35
Sir Des Champs £15w @ 8/1 (lost)
Long Run £10ew @ 10/1 (3rd)
Bob's Worth £40w @ 29/10 (won)
Foxhunters:
Chapoturgeon £40w @ 5/1 (lost)
Doubles:
Far West (Triumph) (2nd) and Cotton Mill (County) (5pl) (lost) £10ew @ 5/1 and 8/1
Un Atout (Supreme) (5pl) (4th) and Long Run (GC) (3rd) £10ew @ 7/1 and 13/2
For Non Stop (Ryanair) (3rd) and Kid Cassidy (GA) (2nd) £5ew @ 20/1 and 14/1
Sir Des Champs (GC) (lost) and Cristoforo Colombo (2000G) £10 @ 4/1 and 12/1
Chapoturgeon (Fox) (lost) and Cristoforo Colombo (2000G) £10 @ 5/1 and 12/1
(+397.07)
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