Cheltenham Thoughts - 9 Days

I didn't have a bet yesterday but found the action fascinating nonetheless. Last season at the Scottish Grand National meeting at Ayr the Paul Nicholls trained Pacha Du Polder was most impressive in taking a Grade 2 Novice Chase and he started this campaign as one to follow for a lot of people. I kind of think this had a fair amount to do with his trainer identity and in the Old Roan Chase at Aintree at the back end of October he went off ludicrously short in an event won by the high class For Non Stop. Two poor runs in the mud followed and he went off at 18/1 in an ordinary looking handicap at Newbury yesterday back on good ground and he once again impressed with his jumping finally back on a decent surface. I think this indicates that there will in all probability be horses running at the Festival shortly who have gone under the radar somewhat given the underfoot conditions we've had nearly all winter. Indeed, the aforementioned For Non Stop is one such animal and he remains very backable at 20/1 for the Ryanair. Another is the Ian Williams trained Barbatos who had an excellent season novice hurdling in 2011/12. He ran well twice behind Fingal Bay and won a hot looking event from Battonier on New Years Day at Cheltenham (Battonier later won the 2012 version of the contest At Fishers Cross scored in on Trials Day this season). Barbatos picked up an injury subsequently and at one stage was around 10/1 for the Neptune. The horse has run only once this season on unsuitably soft ground over an inadequate trip and he looks very well handicapped on his novice form. He has entries in the Coral Cup and the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle. His rating of 137 means he's far more likely to run in the latter and I've taken 33/1 NRNB at Bet365.

I've also added Module in the Jewson that opens Thursday's card. This race really looks like cutting up with my original fancy Oscar's Well increasingly looking like staying at home and Dynaste probably going for the RSA. I wasn't impressed with Captain Conan in the Scilly Isles and think he'll struggle up the hill at this trip. If Nicky Henderson didn't have Simonsig for the race Captain Conan would be running in the Arkle. That has to be a negative. The Mullins trained Aupcharlie is next in the betting but looking at his form I can't see how two and a half miles on decent ground will bring about the best in him. He was only just outstayed over three miles on soft ground by Back In Focus (who is the epitome of a dour stayer) at the Lexus meeting. Module has decent hurdling form at Cheltenham on goodish ground and looks a fine jumper of a fence who will be suited to this test. He needs to improve to take a hand at the finish but he's unexposed and entitled to do so. This is one of the less competitive events of the week and he's very backable at 10/1.

EDIT 4/3:
I might be adding bets every day or two from now on as well as topping up existing ones but as we're so close to the Festival rather than writing too many entries I'll just add them on to the list and post my thoughts on the day of the race.
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Supreme:
My Tent or Yours £90w @ 42/10
Jezki £25w @ 58/10

Arkle:
Arvika Ligeonniere £30w @ 11/1

Champion Hurdle:
Grandouet £10w @ 12/1
"Greened up" for £47.19 (Backed @ 9.38, laid @ 8.43)
Grandouet £50w @ 6/1 (NRNB) Stake returned if Hurricane Fly wins race
Zarkandar £40w @ 9/2

Cross Country:
Bostons Angel £40w @ 103/10
Shalimar Fromentro £10w @ 37/1

RSA:
Boston Bob £35w @ 97/10

Bumper:
Pure Science £15w @ 16/1

Jewson:
Module £20w @ 10/1

Ryanair:
First Lieutenant £25w @ 10/1 (NRFB)
Finian's Rainbow £25w @ 105/10
For Non Stop £10ew @ 20/1 (NRNB)

World Hurdle:
Reve De Sivola £15ew @ 10/1
Bog Warrior £10ew @ 11/1 (NRNB)

Albert Bartlett:
Coneygree £130w @ 92/10

Gold Cup:
Sir Des Champs £15w @ 8/1
First Lieutenant £15ew @ 12/1 (NRNB)
Long Run £10ew @ 10/1

Foxhunters:
Chapoturgeon £40w @ 5/1

Martin Pipe Conditional Hurdle:
Barbatos £15ew @ 33/1 (NRNB)

Non Runners - Total of £240 lost (Mainly Flemenstar, Fingal Bay, Spirit Son, Oscar's Well and Clondaw Kaempfer)

Win Doubles:
My Tent or Yours (Sup) and Simonsig (Arkle) £10 @ 20/1 and evs

My Tent or Yours (Sup) and Zarkandar (CH)  £15 @ 2/1 and 6/1

Overturn (Arkle) and Grandouet (CH) £10 @ 4/1 and 7/1

Grandouet (CH) and Sir Des Champs (GC) £10 @ 12/1 and 6/1

Grandouet (CH) and Cue Card (RY) £10 @ 7/1 and 6/1

Boston Bob (RSA) and What a Name (1000 Gns) £10 @ 10/1 and 14/1

Pont Alexandre (NEP) and Sizing Europe (Ryan) £10 @ 11/4 and 7/1

Pont Alexandre (NEP) and First Lieutenant (Ryan) £10 @ 11/4 and 5/1

Pont Alexandre (NEP) and Far West (Triumph) £10 @ 11/4 and 6/1

Pure Science (Bumper) and Coneygree (AB) £10 @ 16/1 and 8/1

Captain Conan (Jewson) and Silviniaco Conti (Gold Cup) £10 @ 6/1 and 9/1

Oscar's Well (Jewson) and Coneygree (AB) £10 @ 10/1 and 8/1

Coneygree (AB) and What a Name (1000 Gns) £10 @ 12/1 and 4/1

Chapoturgeon (Fox) and Cristoforo Colombo (2000 (Gns) £10 @ 5/1 and 12/1

Each Way Doubles:
Un Atout (Sup) (5pl) and Long Run (GC) £10ew @ 7/1 and 13/2

Grandouet (CH) and Divers (BGP) £10ew @ 7/1 and 33/1

Zarkandar (CH) and Pendra (Coral Cup) £10ew @ 5/1 and 14/1

Zarkandar (CH) and Boston Bob (RSA) £10ew @ 4/1 and 9/2 (NRNB)

Bostons Angel (XC) and Module (Jewson) £10ew @ 10/1 and 10/1

For Non Stop (Ryan) and Kid Cassidy (GA) £5ew @ 20/1 and 14/1

£1 Lucky 15:
Simonsig (Arkle) Evs
Boston Bob (RSA) 8/1
Cue Card (Ryanair) 6/1
Coneygree (AB) 8/1