Cheltenham Festival - Thursday

REVE DE SIVOLA

Is there anything worse than last fence fallers when the horse you've backed is in the lead? I don't think so. Boston Bob's defeat was harder to swallow than Orfevre's eclipse in the Arc. Horrible. He'd run so well up until that point as well. Sprinter Sacre's dominating display at least cheered me up a bit. What an animal.

Although I'm well down on the meeting and wasn't confident heading into today I am a lot more positive about Thursday's bets. That's partly down to the quality I think I have running for me and partly the shot in the arm Boston Bob's performance gave me.

The Jewson opens the card and because of doubles I actually have three running for me in this - Dynaste, Captain Conan and Module. I have to admit I wouldn't have backed the latter if Dynaste had gone for the RSA but the bet is there and we'll have to see. He looks a neat, tidy jumper with a touch of class and I thought 10/1 at the time was fair value. Captain Conan is the main danger to the favourite and although he was unimpressive last time I think he'll be better on this decent ground we now have. The race does revolve around Dynaste though. I didn't fancy him for the longer race but this looks straightforward enough really. He's an excellent jumper, will go on the ground and has decent form at the track. Should win.

At the start of the week I'd have said My Tent or Yours, Boston Bob and First Lieutenant were my most important bets of the week. Surely I'm due a little more luck with the latter. When I took 10/1 about him it looked more likely he'd go for the Gold Cup but I just didn't think his owner would want two in that race and leave this one alone. He kept Sir Des Champs and First Lieutenant apart last year after all. So, he has excellent Festival form, jumps well nowadays and hasn't really put a foot wrong this season - just been beaten by stronger stayers. This trip looks ideal and my one concern is the class of Cue Card. For that reason I have topped up my original bet at a rather shorter than I'd ideally like 5/2 via the Racing Post app because I get my stake back if he's second. Cue Card having too much speed is the only way I really see my selection getting beat. My other bet on the race is old favourite For Non Stop. He's very under the radar now but his win in the Old Roan indicated he had improved over the summer. He goes well fresh and although he wasn't at his best last year in the Jewson that race came after a relatively hard campaign for a novice and trip and ground will suit tomorrow. He's still overpriced.

I think the World Hurdle is fearsome tough but Reve de Sivola has done nothing wrong this season and although he's been tainted with the mudlark brush I'm not buying it 100%. He ran an excellent race behind Peddlers Cross on good ground in the Neptune in 2010 and I dunno, bad vibes have come out of the camp re him being hard to train because he has bad legs but you have to go on the form book and this season he's the best horse in the field. Oscar Whisky is a smashing horse but they'll go fearsome quick in this and he won't stay up the hill after such a gallop. Ante-Post I have a smallish bet each way at 10s and I've topped that up. I also have Bog Warrior in the race but have a feeling he won't run unless it rains. His profile suggests soft ground horse although he's never been tried on good and might like it. His sire was a proper fast ground merchant who I seem to remember backing when he was third in Lammtarra's King George.

The Cross Country that was cancelled on Tuesday is the last race on the card tomorrow and the ground has now come good for Bostons Angel. He has a good chance.

Lastly, I have two remaining free bets to place via Oscar's Well and Arvika Legionnaire not running in the Jewson and I will make my selections as per the bookie's rules in the morning.

EDIT 14/3:
The two bets I receive from BetVictor via NRFB have been placed on Captain Conan in the Jewson and Cue Card in the Ryanair. The former has it all to do to beat Dynaste and I think his enhanced price is partly to do with that animals participation and partly Captain Conan's rather less than impressive win in the Scilly Isles in early February. He only beat Third Intention narrowly that day but had him miles further back in the Henry VIII over a shorter trip on Tingle Creek day. Basically the ground was very deep in the former race and I was at Sandown in December and was very taken by the horse as a physical specimen. I think he has every chance of staying the two and a half on this drying ground.
I've backed Cue Card in the Ryanair simply because he appears the only realistic danger to First Lieutenant. He may have too much speed for Mouse's horse but then again the last time he met such a burner was when he beat Rock on Ruby in the Neptune so I'm not overly concerned.


Jewson:
Oscar's Well (NR) £35
Module £20w @ 10/1 (lost)
Captain Conan £25w @ 7/1 (lost)

Ryanair:
First Lieutenant £25w @ 10/1 and £35w @ 5/2 (mbs) (Free bet up to £25 rather than full refund) :(
Finian's Rainbow (NR) £25
For Non Stop £20ew @ 18/1 (3rd)
Cue Card £20w @ 7/2 (won)

World Hurdle:
Reve De Sivola £15ew @ 10/1 and £40w @ 5/1 (lost)
Bog Warrior £10ew @ 11/1 (lost)

Cross Country:
Bostons Angel £30w @ 10/1 (lost)


Doubles:
Hurricane Fly (CH) (won)  and Dynaste (Jewson) (lost) £20w @ 9/4 and 7/4

Captain Conan (Jewson) (lost) and Champion Court (Ryan) £10ew @ 7/1 and 15/2

Captain Conan (Jewson) (lost) and Silviniaco Conti (GC) £10 @ 6/1 and 9/1

Module (Jewson) (lost) and Bostons Angel (XC) £10ew @ 10/1 and 10/1

For Non Stop (Ryan) (3rd) and Kid Cassidy (Grand Annual) £5ew @ 20/1 and 14/1


£1 Lucky 15:
Simonsig (Arkle) Evs (won)
Boston Bob (RSA) 8/1 (fell)
Cue Card (Ryanair) 6/1 (won)
Coneygree (AB) 8/1 (NR)

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