12/03/2013

Cheltenham Festival - Wednesday

SIZING EUROPE

After not having a bet for a while today's action has kind of tired me out. A poor start from a punting perspective but the action was terrific. I thought the Supreme was a top notch renewal and the front three will all make their mark in open company next year. The first two maybe as chasers and Jezki would interest me for the Champion at a price. Arkle winner Simonsig will need to settle and jump better if he's to go to the top though - his opponents next year will be different gear to what he faced today. And finally Hurricane Fly was superb in winning the Champion Hurdle after not travelling that great. He was just so gutsy, and the sneaky double I placed a couple of hours before the race on him and Dynaste at least meant I wasn't wiped out. I actually placed it because I thought the soft ground and lack of pace would really suit him. Turned out there was pace and the going wasn't as soft as we all thought. Dems der breaks.

Anyway, on to Wednesday's action. I've not had a proper bet on Pont Alexandre in the Neptune mainly because the price at the time didn't interest me that much but I knew I wanted to be against The New One and Taquin Du Seuil so placed him in some doubles. I like The New One a lot and he's the most attractive novice I've seen this season but he looks all chaser to me and I think he's vulnerable over the smaller obstacles as he tends to lose ground when jumping and that will cost him like it did Sprinter Sacre in his Supreme. Taquin Du Seuil I just think is under priced. The Challow he won is a bad race for Cheltenham wannabees and it was a poor renewal to boot. The rest don't look the best although Rule the World may be the main danger if he goes on the ground.

Boston Bob in the RSA is one of the most important bets of the week for me. As we saw today previous Festival form is a big plus and his run in the Albert Bartlett last season showed he stays all day and at least acts on the track. He's not been foot perfect over fences and got badly outpaced in the Moriarty last time out  but he stayed on like a train to win that race and in this tomorrow the more even pace he'll get and the extra distance with it's uphill finish will really suit him. With Dynaste running in the Jewson his opposition looks moderate for a Grade 1 and although I respect Unioniste and Hadrian's Approach the former needed a shed load of weight from a hardly top class Walkon to win the December Gold Cup and the latter looks sketchy at best in his jumping. I've topped up my ante-post bet.

Sprinter Sacre is obviously not one to oppose in the Queen Mother and I hope he wins in style. I'd also like a clean round of jumping from Sizing Europe. Love both those horses.

I did back Barbatos for the Martin Pipe on the last day but he's got in the Coral Cup. He has a chance but it looks a fearsome handicap and I'm leaving it alone aside from doubling him with For Non Stop on Thursday.

I have Pure Science in the Bumper but he's far bigger in the market than he was when I backed him so that tells a story.

EDIT 13/3:
I usually make these blog entries the night before big meetings and always do so for Cheltenham but this year I have three "free" bets to be used on Wednesday and Thursday and I can only place them on the day of the race. These bets are as a result of the non-runner free bet concession I used a number of times with BetVictor. Today I have £25 to use via Clondaw Kaempfer missing the Neptune and tomorrow I have £20 and £25 because Oscar's Well and Arvika Legionnaire are absent from the Jewson. I did have an internal debate with myself about whether or not to include these bets in my portfolio but at the end of the day if the selections I make go down I hardly get the money back I deposited with the bookie in the first place.
I'm already down £70 on the RSA because of non runners and so in selecting Unioniste I feel I have a sporting chance of getting most of it back. He's obviously the biggest danger to Boston Bob and although he's hardly value nothing else appeals in the race.

Neptune:
Clondaw Kaempfer (NR) £25

RSA:
Fingal Bay (NR) £60
Our Father (NR) £10
Boston Bob £50w @ 8/1 (fell)
Unioniste £25w @ 7/2 (lost)

Bumper:
Pure Science £15w @ 16/1 (lost)

Doubles:
Pont Alexandre (NEP) and Sizing Europe (Ryan) (NR) £10 @ 11/4 and 7/1

Pont Alexandre (NEP) (lost) and First Lieutenant (Ryan) £10 @ 11/4 and 5/1

Pont Alexandre (NEP) (lost)and Far West (Triumph) £10 @ 11/4 and 6/1

Boston Bob (RSA)(fell) and What a Name (1000 Gns) £10 @ 10/1 and 14/1

Barbatos (Coral) (lost) and For Non Stop (Ryan) £10ew @ 20/1 and 14/1

Pure Science (Bumper) and Coneygree (AB) (NR) £10 @ 16/1 and 8/1

(+454.53)

£1 Lucky 15:
Simonsig (Arkle) Evs
Boston Bob (RSA) 8/1
Cue Card (Ryanair) 6/1
Coneygree (AB) 8/1

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