The headline makers going into this weekend's action are Hurricane Fly and Big Buck's. Six Festival victories they may have between them but for different reasons they look vulnerable in their respective races at Leopardstown and Cheltenham. They have both reached the veteran stage and I believe neither will win in March this time around. The Hurricane is intensely vulnerable with some top class young horses waiting in the wings to grab his crown and Big Buck's at eleven years of age and with well over a year off the track faces a hard task both today in the Cleeve Hurdle and in the World Hurdle in six weeks. He wont be match fit yet and with the ground heavy/soft in places at headquarters I think either Boston Bob or Reve de Sivola will turn him over later this afternoon. I would back the latter if this race was at Newbury or Ascot but he's just never been quite at his best at this course even though the ground has come in his favour.
Nick Williams does however have cracking chances in most of the other races on today's card and I've backed two of them. Le Rocher is a juvenile hurdler with an enormous amount of scope and he won a Grade 1 at Chepstow on deep ground in very taking fashion a few weeks ago. The Triumph Hurdle trial he runs in today looks a good heat but his trainers young animals continue to be overpriced and although the Paul Nicholls contender looks a good sort his odds of around 11/8 compared to 3s about the selection is an excessive gap relative to their respective chances. Paul was on the Morning Line earlier today and obviously fancies his horse's chance but that sort of exposure can skewer the odds of a race (we saw a similar thing when Champion Court's owner was on the same programme before the Paddy Power in November and that horse's odds ended up being incredibly short).
The other bet is The Italian Yob who runs in the Novices' Handicap Chase. He's a horse with form ties to a very good Alan King horse called Valdez who some judges fancy for the Arkle and is a noticeably game front runner who jumps very well for a novice. The ability to jump well and economically is a massive plus for any animal's chances in a given race but particularly so for younger horses who obviously haven't a lot of miles on the clock. Off 132 today the selection won a similar event at Sandown in December off 125 and the seven pound hike doesn't look enough to stop him being competitive in an admittedly tougher looking event. Although that said the second favourite, Ohio Gold, is held on that Valdez form line.
Triumph Hurdle Trial:
Le Rocher £40w @ 3/1 (won)
Novices' Handicap Chase:
The Italian Yob £40w @ 11/2 (pu)
(-318.75)
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