The best race of today is the rearranged Tolworth Hurdle at Kempton. I'm sweet on The Liquidator for the Supreme Novices' but today's race is taking place on a radically different course on deep ground and I think he could be vulnerable, his trainer certainly thinks so. I won't be too bothered if he gets turned over as long as he runs well and on the bright side his price for March will hold up in that scenario - especially if the Mullins horse who heads the ante-post market at present wins at Punchestown.
My one bet today is an old favourite, Captain Chris in the listed chase over 2m4f. He ran a stormer first time out when third in the Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon behind Riverside Theatre (rec 10lbs) and Champion Court (rec 4lbs, same terms today). He looked big in the paddock that day and will strip fitter now. Kempton is one of his favourite tracks and although he missed the King George after a setback it was only a superficial cut that kept him on the sidelines and I expect a big run today. On soft ground I don't believe Champion Court has a finish in him to confirm form from Huntingdon and a bigger danger is the high class Twinlight from the Mullins yard. That horse has been in rude form this season thus far but today's trip is a stretch for him. All his winning form is over around two miles and his pedigree strongly suggests he'll struggle to see this distance out. I expected Captain Chris to be around 6/4 for this so I'm happy to take 2/1.
Listed Chase:
Captain Chris £55w @ 2/1 (won)
(-530)
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