27/01/2014

Trials Postscript

What a great weekend of racing we've just witnessed with Cheltenham clues aplenty.

Gotta start with yesterday's Irish Champion Hurdle. The race developed into something of a sprint from around the last flight and I was impressed with how much Our Conor had progressed since his last run. The way the race was run was right up Hurricane Fly's street and I'm pretty confident Our Conor can reverse the form on better ground in six weeks. As a ten year old I believe Hurricane Fly is incredibly vulnerable in a fast run race on a decent surface. I'll be going into the Champion Hurdle with three arrows and I'm confidently against the champ and The New One (who I don't think hurdles well enough to win a very good renewal) and expect to have the winner in my portfolio. My Tent or Yours remains my main hope.

Big Buck's ran well enough after his long absence on Saturday but the form looks sub standard and although he could improve and be hard to beat in the World Hurdle he could just as easily bounce after such a hard effort on deep ground and at the prices I am very content with my position on Rule the World.

I was pleased with Felix Yonger's run in the Irish Arkle yesterday. He jumped well in the main but made a mistake and was hampered by a faller down the back straight before plugging on for second behind a horse he had dispatched with ease back in the Autumn on better ground. I took some 16/1 about him for the Arkle immediately after the race but was dismayed to read that his trainer plans to step him up in trip for his next start. If we get good ground in March he'll be hard to beat whichever race he runs in as he is the best jumping novice I've seen this year on a decent surface but I would prefer him to run in the shorter contest. We'll just have to see what happens. I was also taken with the performance of Valdez at Doncaster and I like him more than all the other British novices at around two miles. I expect he'll be around 10/1 on the day and I'd rather wait and take that price then than risk a bet now with his stable only just having recovered from a virus. It's more likely I'll include him in one or two each way doubles than have an outright bet on him.

I backed Le Rocher in the opener at Cheltenham and he was most impressive despite being non too fluent at a couple of hurdles. A fast pace will help his jumping. The big questions with this horse is will he be effective on better ground and will he even run in the Triumph Hurdle? I think he will go for the race now and his pedigree offers some comfort as to his likely effectiveness on a better surface. Quito de la Roque is by the same stallion and he won a decent novice chase on firmish ground at Aintree a few years back. Straw clutching? Possibly, but at 12/1 and with the best form so far I think it's a chance worth taking. I also have a position on Fox Norton from the same stable and he is much more of a traditional type for the race with his flat pedigree and good ground form.


Supreme Novices':
The Liquidator £15w @ 176/10
West Wizard £15w @ 16/1

Arkle:
Felix Yonger £20w @ 13/1

Champion Hurdle:
Jezki £20w @ 172/10
My Tent or Yours £40w @ 7/1
Our Conor £15w @ 9/1 (NRFB)
Our Conor £15w @ 6/1 (NRNB)

Neptune:
Briar Hill £20w @ 12/1 (NRFB)
Ballyalton £5w @ 21/1

RSA:
Clondaw Kaempfer £4w @ 109/1
Wonderful Charm £25w @ 16/1 (NRFB)

Champion Chase:
Twinlight £10ew @ 25/1 (NRNB)

JLT Novices' Chase:
Chatterbox £10w @ 25/1 (NRFB)
Felix Yonger £25w @ 91/10
Champagne Fever £20w @ 7/1 (NRFB)
Wonderful Charm £10w @ 7/1 (NRFB)
Wonderful Charm £15w @ 7/1

Ryanair:
Al Ferof £20w @ 20/1 (NRFB)
Al Ferof £45w @ 65/10 (NRNB)
Cue Card £15w @ 52/10

World Hurdle:
Monksland £10w @ 24/1
Rule The World £20ew @ 20/1 (NRNB)

Triumph Hurdle:
Fox Norton £15ew @ 25/1 (NRFB)
Le Rocher £15w @ 12/1

Albert Bartlett:
Briar Hill £20w @ 6/1

Gold Cup:
Al Ferof £15w @ 19/1
Sir Des Champs £15w @ 10/1 (NRFB)

£1 Lucky 15:
Irving (Supreme) 12/1
My Tent or Yours (CH) 4/1
Briar Hill (Albert Bartlett) 6/1
Bob's Worth (Gold Cup) 9/4

£10 Each Way Doubles:
The Tullow Tank (Supreme) and Faugheen (Neptune) 10/1 and 9/2
Our Conor (Champion Hurdle) and Mendip Express (Nat' Hunt Chase) 5/1 and 8/1











No comments:

Post a Comment