04/01/2015

Ante-Post

    Looking back 2014 was one of the best betting years I've had and I enter the new year with spirits high and a decent bankroll. This 'roll was pretty low before the start of the last flat season as I had to dip into it when I found myself between jobs but it's healthy enough now. I could increase my stakes but I'm waiting for the Festival and then the start of the next flat season to do that.

    I'm on a bit of a losing run at present but if there's a time for that to happen it's January which should be a quiet month; most of my bets will be ante-post from here until March. So as well as losing plenty of money since the start of the Christmas period I've been topping up and adding to my Festival portfolio.

    I mentioned how relatively happy I was with Josses Hill's first effort over fences in a previous entry and I did take some 12/1 about him for the Arkle after that race at Ascot. I'm pleased Un De Sceaux seems to be a likelier opponent from the Mullins stable than Vautour but we need to see a more polished round of jumping the next time. I've had it in mind that Jezki would be my Champion Hurdle horse for a while but I didn't think I'd be punting him until March. However he touched 13/2 in a place not long before the Ryanair Hurdle and was available at 11/2 NRNB not long after. Both those prices have been taken. Faugheen will be a formidable opponent but he's crazy short for the race at present.

    Elsewhere I've topped up on King's Palace for the RSA, backed Champagne Fever for the Ryanair also added a sneaky bet on Cue Card to win any race at the Festival. I was on Oddschecker looking at that market when news broke that he would be aimed at the Ryanair and noticed that whilst he was 10/1 for that race RaceBets were going 16/1 that he would win at the Festival at all. I snaffled some of that. My only other addition is a small bet on Shaneshill for the Neptune. I prefer a Mullins novice hurdler with Cheltenham form and although he was beaten in his last race better ground will suit him much more. I'd prefer him for the Supreme in all honesty but doubt he'll go there given his handler's other options at that trip.




--
Arkle Chase:
Josses Hill £50w @ 11/1

Champion Hurdle:
Jezki £15w @ 13/2 and £20ew @ 11/2 NRNB

Neptune Novices' Hurdle:
Shaneshill £5w @ 15/1

RSA Chase:
King's Palace £40w @ 12/1

Queen Mother:
Simonsig £10w @ 14/1
Felix Yonger £10ew @ 33/1 NRNB

Ryanair Chase:
Uxizandre £12w @ 16/1
Champagne Fever £10w @ 12/1

World Hurdle:
More of That £20w @ 5/1

Gold Cup:
Champagne Fever £25w @ 17/1
Taquin Du Seuil £15w @ 26/1
Wonderful Charm £5w @ 156/1

To Win at the Festival:
Cue Card £10 @ 16/1








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5 comments:

  1. Class/Form5 January 2015 at 23:04

    Hi Nick!
    My names Paul, I've been reading your Blog with interest for the last few weeks after stumbling across it whilst researching my selection Apache Stronghold.

    I've done ok with my betting in as much I have a small amount set aside that I have not added to for a year or so whilst betting frequently.

    This is all well and good but I want to take it to the next level and see a steady increase in my funds.

    Can you give any advice ?

    I would appreciate it!
    Thankyou,
    Paul.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Unknown6 January 2015 at 21:59

      Hi, my first bit of advice would be to specialise on a couple of different fields in your betting. Bookies have to price up every race, we don't. So on the flat I look at the better Group 1 races and handicaps between 6f and 10f. I trawl these handicaps looking for horses that usually don't win but may have been unlucky or can be rated higher than their finishing positions indicate (if you're serious about betting get on Ebay and buy a book called Always Back Winners by Stewart Simpson. It's quite old but forms the cornerstone of what I look for on the flat although I have tweeked it a bit)
      On the Jumps I look at the better conditions races focusing on the Festival and I also follow the Nick Williams stable. Following a stable really enhances your knowledge of a certain group of horses and also gives you a handle on a wider range of form. Like Amore Alato who I backed on Saturday ran well against Irving last season in the Adonis Hurdle and his form gave a good pointer to Lac Fontana in the County Hurdle. The key to following a stable is it gives you in depth knowledge of a small band of horses that the bookies don't have. Every edge is valuable.
      Good luck

      Delete
  2. Class/Form7 January 2015 at 07:43

    Thankyou Nick!

    I have pretty much every book going regarding
    Racing, however I don"t have that one!

    I shall invest in it ASAP.

    Cheers for the advice,
    Take care
    Paul.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Class/Form9 January 2015 at 13:37

    Hi Nick!
    Read the book last night, a good read!

    Thanks for the recomendation!

    Do you feel you would make profits following exactly as he does within the book?

    Take care
    Paul.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Unknown9 January 2015 at 23:41

    Well, I picked out maybe seven horses last flat season kind of using his methods but of those seven only a couple caught my eye winning, the other 5 were all placed. So I think using your own system influenced but not tied to the book is the way to go.

    ReplyDelete

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