20/01/2015

Ante-Post

    As you'd expect there are plenty of interesting contests this Saturday at Cheltenham on trials day and the BetBright Cup in particular looks like it could be very informative with regards to the Gold Cup. Dynaste heads the market and if he runs well in the race I would expect him to be steered towards the blur ribband and away from the Ryanair. He's not a guaranteed stayer of course and he's not favoured by the weights either. In a Grade 2 that has penalties a plenty for winning Grade 1's and even some top Handicap Chases the Alan King trained Smad Place gets off scot free and receives between 4 and 8lbs off everything else in the line-up. With that in mind I think he rates a decent each way poke for this at 5/1 with 3 places paid. He didn't run well in the Hennessy but he might have needed that run no matter how well trained he was for it (he jumped well that day but looked to me like he just blew up in the straight) and his form in last year's RSA puts him right there. We might get less than eight runners as well.

    I've added a couple of bets to my Festival portfolio. Sprinter Sacre didn't run too bad at Ascot but it's hard to see how he isn't one to oppose at Cheltenham now at around 11/4 and I've had a bet on Uxizandre at 16/1. He's more than twice the price of Dodging Bullets whom he beat at the track in November and his price reeks of recency bias. Yes he was poor in the Dial-a-Bet at Leopardstown over Christmas but he was asked to set too fast a pace on bad ground that day and it's easy to forgive him that run - especially given his course form at Cheltenham and his preference for better ground. He's an economical jumper who likes to lead and stays further than two miles and I'd be surprised if he's out of the frame on suitable ground. 16s NRNB is excellent value at this stage.

    Back to Dynaste. Given my earlier comments it's fair to say the Ryanair market will be shaken up if he runs well on Saturday and with Don Cossack looking too short at present (I don't see him as a Cheltenham horse at all) I've taken some 8/1 about Cue Card before he tightens. It's been assumed in some quarters that he's a horse on the decline but he wasn't beaten out of sight in the King George. In fact he was only a length further back this season than last and this year's was a better renewal. No he probably isn't as good as he was but at this best he was a 180 beast - he won't need to be within ten pounds of that rating to be very competitive in seven weeks.

BetBright Cup:
Smad Place £20ew @ 5/1


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Arkle Chase:
Josses Hill £50w @ 11/1

Champion Hurdle:
Jezki £15w @ 13/2 and £20ew @ 11/2 NRNB

Neptune Novices' Hurdle:
Shaneshill £5w @ 15/1

Queen Mother:
Uxizandre £15ew @ 16/1 NRNB

RSA Chase:
King's Palace £40w @ 12/1
Tea For Two(Lanzarote)(won)/King's Palace £10w dbl @ 6/1 & 5/1

Ryanair Chase:
Uxizandre £12w @ 16/1
Champagne Fever £10w @ 12/1
Cue Card £20w @ 8/1

World Hurdle:
More of That £20w @ 5/1

Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle:
Tea For Two £10w @ 25/1

Gold Cup:
Boston Bob £10ew @ 20/1 NRNB
Champagne Fever £25w @ 17/1
Taquin Du Seuil £15w @ 26/1
Wonderful Charm £5w @ 156/1

To Win at the Festival:
Cue Card £10 @ 16/1

£10 lost on Non-Runner(s)

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