Kelami - 2005
Here we go again, the best four days of the year. I'll start from the top, up until the weekend I had no position at all in the Supreme but the concessions offered by three different layers - money back as a freebie if your selection returns nothing by two of them and the same if Douvan wins by Powers means you kind of have to get involved. I mentioned Shaneshill in my last entry and I've gone for L'ami Serge as well. It's simply a value play on my part as the worse case scenario is I drop a pony if neither of the front two win the race and my potential return if Nicky's scores is £166, so I effectively have a little over 13/2 about a 3/1ish chance. That'll do for me. Douvan looked a bit of a monster last time out but this test is such a different level for him and he's way too short.
The Arkle is pretty much summed up in one sentence - if Un De Sceaux stays on his feet he wins.
So I haven't much hope with Josses Hill but you never know, the fences are there to be jumped. I like Clarcam in the without fav market which I probably would tuck into but for my position on the race as a whole. Elliot's charge is a good jumper, travels well and the ground will suit him.
Mendip Express might be my only bet in a handicap all week (unless Amore Alato runs in the Martin Pipe.) I like this horse a lot, he ran an absolute stormer in the Becher Chase before the turn of the year and he's won at Cheltenham before. It's hard to say whether or not he's that well handicapped because he's still relatively unexposed over the fences but he gets 3lbs off his back tomorrow and he's a big strapping type who will carry the weight in any case. One or two bookies are paying five places as well.
I'm so excited about the Champion Hurdle. I was last year and it ended up a damp squib thanks to a fatality (RIP Our Conor) so my main hope is an incident free renewal this time around. I'm still sweet on Jezki despite the mountain of hype building around Faugheen and it's hard to see him out of the frame. I'd like more pace in the race but the ground has come good for him and Faugheen won't get away with giving his hurdles a good kicking like he did in the Neptune last year, not against top class two milers like the selection, The New One and Hurricane Fly.
Finally, a word about the top of the page. I'm introducing more life to the blog by inserting pics from now on and they're gonna be of horses I've won on in the past on the corresponding day. Kelami was a Francois Doumen trained chaser who won the William Hill Trophy in 2005. He'd run well in the race the previous year and had fallen down the handicap somewhat in the intervening twelve months and had no weight on his back that day.
Good luck with your bets and whatever happens enjoy it.
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Supreme Novices' Hurdle:
Shaneshill £12.50ew @ 12/1 mbs (2nd)
L'ami Serge £50w @ 100/30 mbs x 2 (lost)
Arkle Chase:
Josses Hill £50w @ 11/1 (lost)
Festival Handicap Chase:
Mendip Express £5w @ 18/1 and £10ew @ 14/1 (5pl) (lost)
Champion Hurdle:
Jezki £15w @ 13/2 and £30ew @ 11/2 (lost)
£5ew Doubles:
Clarcam(Arkle w/out UDS)(lost)Mendip Express(Festival Handicap Chase) @ 9/2 & 14/1
Clarcam(Arkle w/out UDS)/(lost)Blaklion(AB) @ 7/1 & 12/1
Mendip Express(Festival Handicap Chase)(lost)Smad Place(Gold Cup) @ 14/1 & 16/1
Jezki(Champion Hurdle)(lost)Monksland(World Hurdle) @ 6/1 & 16/1
Jezki(Champion Hurdle)(lost)Smad Place(Gold Cup) @ 9/2 & 20/1
(+103.75)
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