19/03/2015

Cheltenham Postscript / Ante-Post

    I thoroughly enjoyed the Festival despite just having the one winner. It was one of the highest quality editions I can remember, particularly in the novice chase division and despite not having a penny on him I was delighted to see Coneygree win the Gold Cup. I had him down as a potential star when he won a Novice Hurdle at the November meeting back in 2011 and his non-appearance at the following Festival was very expensive as I had over a ton on him for the Albert Bartlett. I fear the way he veered left towards the finish was maybe an indicator of extreme tiredness and just hope long term he shows no ill effects from the race.

    Performance of the week went to Vautour in the JLT. I can't remember ever seeing any chaser, let alone a novice, put in such a picture perfect round of jumping. The shape he made over each fence was breathtaking and It'll be very interesting to see his programme for next season. One would think he'd be aimed at the King George, and I wouldn't oppose him on good ground, but his one below par run this season came on soft ground before the turn of the year so I wouldn't be interested ante-post. As for a Gold Cup tilt, with Djakadam in the same ownership I wouldn't be certain about that. I would be against Don Poli as well at a short price for the blue ribband - as good as he looked in the RSA he is a horse who races lazily and on a decent surface I think he'd lose too much ground, particularly if Coneygree was in the field. At this stage I have no ante-post interest in any race at next year's Festival but would favour both Djakadam and Holywell (who must have hated the ground last Friday) at double figure prices.

    There was a period from when the Gold Cup finished until mid day on Sunday where I had absolutely nothing in my ante-post book, and I can't remember that ever being the case before. I usually have a position on the National or a Guineas by that time of the year. Maybe it made me antsy because I spent most of Sunday morning looking at those races and have come up with a couple of bets.

    At Aintree I have backed Godsmejudge at 25/1. He's a horse with some excellent form in the spring having hit the frame in two Scottish Nationals - and his third in the Whitebread last season a fortnight after finishing second at Ayr really was a noteworthy effort. He ran well enough over too short a trip at Kempton last time out and looks poised for a big run. He stays and jumps well enough to get heavily involved in the race.

    At Newmarket in May I'm siding with the master trainer. I backed High Celebrity when she was a commendable third in the Cheveley Park back in the Autumn - she came up against two high quality two year olds in that race and just didn't have their speed. This filly had a bit of a weird campaign in 2014. She opened up over 7f and was then dropped down to 5+ (where she first came to my attention.) M. Fabre has indicated he used the Cheveley Park run as a sighter for the Guineas and whilst she was off and on the bridal I think that was more to do with the pace Tiggy Wiggy went rather than the undulations of the track. High Celebrity is a well made filly with scope and I think 12/1 is decent value at this stage. Found from Ballydoyle is the market leader at present and she does have close form ties via Cursory Glance but that filly's win in the Moyglare wasn't up to the level she displayed in the Lowther against the aforementioned Tiggy Wiggy and Antherm Alexander (second in the Cheveley Park) and she looks underpriced to me.



Grand National:
Godsmejudge £10w @ 25/1

1000 Guineas:
High Celebrity £15w @ 12/1  










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