Friday sees the start of Jumps Racing's first proper big meeting of the season. It's a three day event and there are numerous good horses scheduled to appear. On the Friday we have the Novice Chase that the likes of Denman and Grands Crus have won in the past opening the meeting. Fingal Bay is set to appear in this against better opposition that he faced at Chepstow the other week. The Novice Hurdle later on that afternoon features a number of very promising animals and is a must for the record button on the remote.
The Paddy Power Gold Cup is the big race of the weekend and my ante-post bet on the race went south when For Non Stop wasn't declared on Monday. It looks a high class renewal and I think it will be between the second season chasers near the top of the handicap who seem well treated in the main and look to have too much class for the more exposed animals that lurk at the bottom of the weights. Having had a little on Al Ferof for the King George I was naturally interested in him when Nicholls confirmed the race as a definite for the horse at the 5 day stage. Al Ferof hasn't run in a race with a big field and a strong pace since he won the Supreme at the Festival eighteen months or so ago and he is very unexposed at this sort of trip. He jumps well enough and the sort of lead he'll get in a competitive race like this will really suit him. I got a little over 9/1 on Monday and I firmly believe he's the main danger to short price favourite Grands Crus. The Pipe horse looks well handicapped off 157 and his stable has farmed this race in the past. He was disappointing in the RSA at the Festival but he went into that race having not run since Boxing Day and I believe it was this rustiness against hard fit rivals that cost him as much as a lack of stamina. It's a poor effort that certainly kept his rating down and he must go close even if he is a bit short in the market. For that reason I have put him in a cheeky little double rather than had an outright bet on him.
Sunday's card looks top notch as well. There is a massive Handicap hurdle that I haven't really looked at yet and also the return of Sprinter Sacre to the racecourse. All in all a meeting to really get the blood pumping.
Paddy Power Gold Cup:
For Non Stop £20w @ 21/1 (NR)
Al Ferof £40w @ 925/100
Grands Crus and Finian's Rainbow (King George) £10dbl @ 9/4 and 8/1
14/11/2012
09/11/2012
Wincanton - 10th Nov
Third Jumps bet of the season tomorrow and the third Nick Williams horse I've backed. It might seem like I follow the stable slavishly but when a Hennessy winner like Diamond Harry is 8/1 first time out against the sort of opposition he faces tomorrow on a mark 6lbs lower than the one he won on at Newbury it would be downright rude not to tuck in.
The horse had a poor season in 2011/12 but there are mitigating circumstance. First time out in the Betfair Chase he travelled really well behind Kauto Star before weakening in the straight and essentially being outclassed. No shame in that. He then ran twice at Cheltenham - a course it is clear now he absolutely does not act around. He'd plainly not recovered from those exertions when he pulled up at Aintree in April. The trainer has admitted that he's a fragile horse and he probably shouldn't have gone to Liverpool. There has been no news on any physical ailment and first time out does seem to be the time to catch him.
Tomorrow's opposition are light years away from kauto Star and Long Run and if he's anywhere near his Hennessy Gold Cup winning form (and a lack of injury news, the fact that he is still only nine years old, plus his lightly raced profile) suggests he could be - he's pretty much nailed on for this sort of contest.
I am also considering a bet in the Elite Hurdle that precedes Diamond Harry's race. Zarkandar has to give a fair bit of weight away to some decent types and I like the chances of Prospect Wells from the same Paul Nicholls stable. I'm holding off for the time being as I want to know what the ground will be. Prospect Wells was only beaten 2L in the Supreme on good ground and has ropey looking form on softer.
Edit 10th Nov:
The ground has changed to soft, good to soft in places after overnight rain at Wincanton and that puts me off Prospect Wells. His trainer actually says in today's Racing Post that he wants rain for the horse but that goes against what the form book says. On this sort of ground I like the claims of Balder Success. He looked a horse of some promise before coming down in the Triumph Hurdle and I think for such a young horse that was a monumental test for him. I think he found the lively ground and fast pace too much to cope with. The 4/1 about him today is a decent price. This sort of small field race on soft ground isn't really going to suit Zarkandar who is up against it running off 163 for all that he's a quality animal. I actually think he'd be a strong contender for the World Hurdle this season but I doubt Nicholls will let him take on Big Buck's
Elite Hurdle:
Balder Success £50w @ 4/1 (lost)
Badger Ales Trophy:
Diamond Harry £60w @ 8/1 (lost)
(+140)
The horse had a poor season in 2011/12 but there are mitigating circumstance. First time out in the Betfair Chase he travelled really well behind Kauto Star before weakening in the straight and essentially being outclassed. No shame in that. He then ran twice at Cheltenham - a course it is clear now he absolutely does not act around. He'd plainly not recovered from those exertions when he pulled up at Aintree in April. The trainer has admitted that he's a fragile horse and he probably shouldn't have gone to Liverpool. There has been no news on any physical ailment and first time out does seem to be the time to catch him.
Tomorrow's opposition are light years away from kauto Star and Long Run and if he's anywhere near his Hennessy Gold Cup winning form (and a lack of injury news, the fact that he is still only nine years old, plus his lightly raced profile) suggests he could be - he's pretty much nailed on for this sort of contest.
I am also considering a bet in the Elite Hurdle that precedes Diamond Harry's race. Zarkandar has to give a fair bit of weight away to some decent types and I like the chances of Prospect Wells from the same Paul Nicholls stable. I'm holding off for the time being as I want to know what the ground will be. Prospect Wells was only beaten 2L in the Supreme on good ground and has ropey looking form on softer.
Edit 10th Nov:
The ground has changed to soft, good to soft in places after overnight rain at Wincanton and that puts me off Prospect Wells. His trainer actually says in today's Racing Post that he wants rain for the horse but that goes against what the form book says. On this sort of ground I like the claims of Balder Success. He looked a horse of some promise before coming down in the Triumph Hurdle and I think for such a young horse that was a monumental test for him. I think he found the lively ground and fast pace too much to cope with. The 4/1 about him today is a decent price. This sort of small field race on soft ground isn't really going to suit Zarkandar who is up against it running off 163 for all that he's a quality animal. I actually think he'd be a strong contender for the World Hurdle this season but I doubt Nicholls will let him take on Big Buck's
Elite Hurdle:
Balder Success £50w @ 4/1 (lost)
Badger Ales Trophy:
Diamond Harry £60w @ 8/1 (lost)
(+140)
07/11/2012
Sea Change in NH
The last ten days or so have been incredibly significant for the future of Jumps racing. Late last week came the news that Kauto Star had been retired and in amongst that we have had some really impressive performances by second season chasers, the new order if you will.
I was always more of a Denman man but naturally had an enormous amount of respect for Kauto Star. I saw him win a couple of his Betfair Chases in person: his narrow victory over Imperial Commander in 2009 being one of the most thrilling races I've ever seen. He'll be must missed and like Desert Orchid and Arkle, never forgotten by National Hunt fans.
For Non Stop, Silvaniaco Conti and Cue Card have all won nice races in the last week or so, and with Sprinter Sacre, Flemenstar, Sir Des Champs and Grand Crus all waiting in the wings I think the future of the sport is very bright. Let's hope they all have full seasons and get to the Festival in one piece. I will be in attendance at Sandown on Tingle Creek day and I'm hopeful that Sprinter Sacre and Sanctuaire will meet-up for a mouth watering race.
For Non Stop has shot up to a mark of 162 after his Old Roan win but I still think he has a fair each chance in the Paddy Power. He'll be fit as a butchers dog, it's clear he has progressed a fair bit since last season and I have topped up.
Ante-Post Portfolio:
Paddy Power Gold Cup:
For Non Stop £20w @ 21/1
King George:
Al Ferof £10w @ 18/1
--------
Arkle:
Trifolium £10w @ 27/1
Champion Hurdle:
Spirit Son £35w @ 13/1
RSA:
Fingal Bay £50w @ 12/1
Gold Cup:
Flemenstar £50w @ 13/1
Al Ferof £5w @ 54/1
I was always more of a Denman man but naturally had an enormous amount of respect for Kauto Star. I saw him win a couple of his Betfair Chases in person: his narrow victory over Imperial Commander in 2009 being one of the most thrilling races I've ever seen. He'll be must missed and like Desert Orchid and Arkle, never forgotten by National Hunt fans.
For Non Stop, Silvaniaco Conti and Cue Card have all won nice races in the last week or so, and with Sprinter Sacre, Flemenstar, Sir Des Champs and Grand Crus all waiting in the wings I think the future of the sport is very bright. Let's hope they all have full seasons and get to the Festival in one piece. I will be in attendance at Sandown on Tingle Creek day and I'm hopeful that Sprinter Sacre and Sanctuaire will meet-up for a mouth watering race.
For Non Stop has shot up to a mark of 162 after his Old Roan win but I still think he has a fair each chance in the Paddy Power. He'll be fit as a butchers dog, it's clear he has progressed a fair bit since last season and I have topped up.
Ante-Post Portfolio:
Paddy Power Gold Cup:
For Non Stop £20w @ 21/1
King George:
Al Ferof £10w @ 18/1
--------
Arkle:
Trifolium £10w @ 27/1
Champion Hurdle:
Spirit Son £35w @ 13/1
RSA:
Fingal Bay £50w @ 12/1
Gold Cup:
Flemenstar £50w @ 13/1
Al Ferof £5w @ 54/1
02/11/2012
Ascot - 3rd Nov
There are some nice races at Ascot and Wetherby tomorrow and the bet of the day is in the three mile handicap chase at the former track where I think Alfie Spinner is weighted to go close. I foolishly backed this horse in the four miler for novices at the Festival where the trip (too far) and the ground (too lively) were against him. The ground will be soft enough tomorrow and off 140 he has a nice handicap in him over this sort of trip. After all, he ran a superb race behind Invictus and RSA winner Bob's Worth over course and distance in February. He may have been slightly flattered by that result as Bob's Worth is a Cheltenham specialist but nevertheless he's ahead of the handicapper without doubt as he goes into open company. He's 2lb wrong in this but has a 3lb claimer onboard.
United House Gold Cup:
Alfie Spinner £50w @ 66/10 (lost)
(+250)
United House Gold Cup:
Alfie Spinner £50w @ 66/10 (lost)
(+250)
26/10/2012
Aintree - 27th October
Tomorrow's Old Roan Chase at Aintree looks a decent renewal with a couple of up and coming animals taking on some old stagers. For Non Stop is a horse I have backed quite a few times over hurdles and fences and I think he's more than fairly priced at 6/1 for this contest. He had a good novice season which included a Grade 1 in an admittedly poor renewal of the Scilly Isles Chase at Newbury. He was a bit below par at the Festival but in the main he jumped well in 2011/12 and looks a decent stayer in the making. Off 151 tomorrow and in the Paddy Power in mid November I think he's fairly enough handicapped to take advantage of this mark.
Of his opponents tomorrow Wishfull Thinking is giving plenty of weight away, Nacarat is surely too old to score in decent company at this sort of trip (two and a half miles), and Gauvain only seems to win really uncompetitive races. I do respect Noble Prince however. His form last year was a bit in and out and indeed his runs behind Big Zeb in Ireland don't read as good now as they did at the time. But if he can recapture some of his Novice form he'll be a big danger to my selection. I don't know what to make of Pacha Du Polder. His form is nowhere near strong enough to warrant favouritism and he owes his position in the market to being trained by Paul Nicholls. His cramped odds kind of make the race and I'm hopeful of a good run from my selection. My only worry is that Nick might be running him in this just to get him in proper shape for his bigger test on the 17th November. If he wins either of these contests I'll be happy.
Old Roan Chase:
For Non Stop £50w @ 6/1 (won)
Of his opponents tomorrow Wishfull Thinking is giving plenty of weight away, Nacarat is surely too old to score in decent company at this sort of trip (two and a half miles), and Gauvain only seems to win really uncompetitive races. I do respect Noble Prince however. His form last year was a bit in and out and indeed his runs behind Big Zeb in Ireland don't read as good now as they did at the time. But if he can recapture some of his Novice form he'll be a big danger to my selection. I don't know what to make of Pacha Du Polder. His form is nowhere near strong enough to warrant favouritism and he owes his position in the market to being trained by Paul Nicholls. His cramped odds kind of make the race and I'm hopeful of a good run from my selection. My only worry is that Nick might be running him in this just to get him in proper shape for his bigger test on the 17th November. If he wins either of these contests I'll be happy.
Old Roan Chase:
For Non Stop £50w @ 6/1 (won)
19/10/2012
Frankel vs Cirrus Des Aigles
Frankel is the best flat horse I've ever seen and chances are he will win tomorrow on his final outing but the gap between him and French gelding Cirrus Des Aigles is a narrow one imo on the likely very soft conditions underfoot at Ascot. I took big prices about the latter before his impressive win in the Prix Dollar and have topped up gradually since then. I actually think it will be a close run thing and I can see a ding dong battle to the line. For that reason I have put in an In-Running lay of my selection at even money. This will be my final bet of a quite difficult at times Flat season. But one that will end in profit.
Champion Stakes:
Cirrus Des Aigles £90w @ 75/10 (lost)
(+866)
Champion Stakes:
Cirrus Des Aigles £90w @ 75/10 (lost)
(+866)
17/10/2012
Ante-Post Update
I'm very excited about Saturday's showdown between Frankel and Cirrus Des Aigles. I'm not taking the great horse lightly with my bet on the latter but the ground looks like it could almost be on the heavy side and that brings them quite close together. I've topped up the initial small money I had at 16/1 and may do the same on the day of the race depending on the conditions.
After Champions Day I concentrate on the Jumps as the Breeders Cup is trappy from a betting point of view and to be honest American racing leaves me a bit cold. The Paddy Power Gold Cup is the first major race of the season on the 17th November and I've opened a small position on For Non Stop. The weights aren't out yet but the Nick Williams trained gelding is currently on a mark of 151 which underrates him. He has a certain amount of scope, especially for a race of this nature. He's been running on well at the end of small field graded novice chases up to now and I think being held up in a big field with plenty of cover will suit him. Naturally I am slightly biased given where he is based but I don't back Nick Williams horses willy nilly. For me following a stable just means I get to know a certain amount of horses better, I get more familiar with their form and the conditions they need to perform to their best.
Last weekend Fingal Bay had his first race over the larger obstacles and whilst he wasn't overly impressive he jumped very tidily before idling near the finish. We'll learn more when he faces better rivals.
Also on Saturday there were a couple of really big two year old races. Dawn Approach looked some tool in battling out an impressive win in the Dewhurst and will be tough to beat if he returns to Newmarket in May. I also thought Cristoforo Colombo was interesting in the 6f Middle Park that preceded it. He got badly outpaced against faster rivals but ran on really well at the end and I think another couple of furlongs in next year's Guineas and faster ground will suit him far better. Immediately after the race some quite insulting prices were available on Betfair about him so I took some action.
Champion Stakes:
Cirrus Des Aigles £30w @ 10/1
----------------------
Paddy Power Gold Cup:
For Non Stop £10w @ 24/1
Arkle:
Trifolium £10w @ 27/1
Champion Hurdle:
Spirit Son £35w @ 13/1
RSA Chase:
Fingal Bay £50w @ 12/1
Gold Cup:
Flemenstar £50w @ 13/1
-----------------------
2000 Guineas:
Cristoforo Colombo £10w @ 36/1
1000 Guineas:
Newfangled £15w @ 16/1
After Champions Day I concentrate on the Jumps as the Breeders Cup is trappy from a betting point of view and to be honest American racing leaves me a bit cold. The Paddy Power Gold Cup is the first major race of the season on the 17th November and I've opened a small position on For Non Stop. The weights aren't out yet but the Nick Williams trained gelding is currently on a mark of 151 which underrates him. He has a certain amount of scope, especially for a race of this nature. He's been running on well at the end of small field graded novice chases up to now and I think being held up in a big field with plenty of cover will suit him. Naturally I am slightly biased given where he is based but I don't back Nick Williams horses willy nilly. For me following a stable just means I get to know a certain amount of horses better, I get more familiar with their form and the conditions they need to perform to their best.
Last weekend Fingal Bay had his first race over the larger obstacles and whilst he wasn't overly impressive he jumped very tidily before idling near the finish. We'll learn more when he faces better rivals.
Also on Saturday there were a couple of really big two year old races. Dawn Approach looked some tool in battling out an impressive win in the Dewhurst and will be tough to beat if he returns to Newmarket in May. I also thought Cristoforo Colombo was interesting in the 6f Middle Park that preceded it. He got badly outpaced against faster rivals but ran on really well at the end and I think another couple of furlongs in next year's Guineas and faster ground will suit him far better. Immediately after the race some quite insulting prices were available on Betfair about him so I took some action.
Champion Stakes:
Cirrus Des Aigles £30w @ 10/1
----------------------
Paddy Power Gold Cup:
For Non Stop £10w @ 24/1
Arkle:
Trifolium £10w @ 27/1
Champion Hurdle:
Spirit Son £35w @ 13/1
RSA Chase:
Fingal Bay £50w @ 12/1
Gold Cup:
Flemenstar £50w @ 13/1
-----------------------
2000 Guineas:
Cristoforo Colombo £10w @ 36/1
1000 Guineas:
Newfangled £15w @ 16/1
13/10/2012
Future Champions Day
As the title of this entry says today is future champions day at Newmarket as headquarters hosts the Middle Park and Dewhurst Stakes for 2yos. Dawn Approach is a very short priced for the latter and should win whilst the former looks quite competitive. I like Moohaajim in that race. He was beaten by Reckless Abandon in the Prix Morny but after being drawn nearest the inside rail his jockey met trouble in running and the horse eventually finished two lengths behind the winner but was widest of all as they crossed the line. Moohaajim then went on to win the Mill Reef impressively at Newbury. It should be close between them today but the market reflects that. No bet.
The big betting race of the day is the Cesarewitch and I've had a little each way on Motivado at 16/1. I was at Haydock last year when he won a minor event there ultra impressively and he was favourite for the Ebor in August after doing a similar demolition job in a handicap at Glorious Goodwood. I backed him at York where he finished a staying on 4th. I really think this step up in trip will suit him and this is a good each way race because most bookmakers pay five places and you have to be drawn relatively lowly to have a chance. Sir Mark's animal is in stall 13 which is ok. It's a competitive race but my selection looks slightly overpriced.
It seems strange that on a racing day entitled future champions day Channel 4 are showing races from York and ignoring the jumping at Chepstow. The action at the Knavesmire is very hum drum but Fingal Bay runs in a novice chase at the Welsh track and I'm excited about seeing him jump a fence. I'm confident this horse will be a future champion be it as a novice or a future Gold Cup horse. Along with Flemenstar he is the cornerstone of my Cheltenham Festival hopes next spring. As a novice hurdler he was the only horse to beat Simonsig last year in a race at Sandown in December. The form of that race worked out perfectly and I did back Fingal Bay for the Baring Bingham at the Festival but unfortunately he got injured in February. He ran at Aintree but got caught near the finish, displaying a certain rustiness to my mind given that he hadn't run in a while. I'm hoping for a good round of juping today and he does look a fine chaser in the making.
Cesarewitch:
Motivado £25ew @ 16/1 (4th)
(+956)
Cheltenham Festival:
Arkle:
Trifolium £10w @ 27/1
Champion Hurdle:
Spirit Son £35w @ 13/1
RSA Chase:
Fingal Bay £50w @ 12/1
Gold Cup:
Flemenstar £40w @ 12/1
Cesarewitch:
Motivado £25ew @ 16/1 (4th)
(+956)
Cheltenham Festival:
Arkle:
Trifolium £10w @ 27/1
Champion Hurdle:
Spirit Son £35w @ 13/1
RSA Chase:
Fingal Bay £50w @ 12/1
Gold Cup:
Flemenstar £40w @ 12/1
08/10/2012
Arc Aftermath / Ante-Post
I've been punting now for over twenty years and yesterday's Arc was the most heartbreaking loss in those two decades. When Orfevre went clear it looked a done deal and I was on my feet screaming at the jockey to keep him going but alas he was caught near the line. He was the best horse in the race and his turn of foot reminded me of Peintre Celebre's in the same race but the deep ground and the wide draw did for him really.
I hope he comes back over for the race next year.
Soumillon said post-race that Orfevre is the best horse he has ridden, a bit heat of the moment considering he won the Arc on Dalakhani and Zarkava. You can see his point though in a way. He has also ridden Cirrus Des Aigles who was most impressive winning the Prix Dollar on Saturday after an absence from the racecourse through injury. He won the Champion Stakes at an amazing 12/1 last year when he was my biggest winner by far of that flat season but all the talk before the weekend has been about Frankel and the fact that the race will be his swansong. Cirrus was again being ignored and before he won the Prix Dollar I took some 18 and 16 on Betfair about him for the Ascot contest. Obviously Frankel will be a massive nut to crack and I am to a large extent hoping for soft ground the gelding. I think he's a special horse under those conditions and Ascot with it's short straight isn't Frankel's ideal venue.
Champion Stakes:
Cirrus Des Aigles £10w @ 16/1
----------------------
Arkle:
Trifolium £10w @ 27/1
Champion Hurdle:
Spirit Son £35w @ 13/1
RSA Chase:
Fingal Bay £40w @ 12/1
Gold Cup:
Flemenstar £40w @ 12/1
-----------------------
1000 Guineas:
Newfangled £15w @ 16/1
I hope he comes back over for the race next year.
Soumillon said post-race that Orfevre is the best horse he has ridden, a bit heat of the moment considering he won the Arc on Dalakhani and Zarkava. You can see his point though in a way. He has also ridden Cirrus Des Aigles who was most impressive winning the Prix Dollar on Saturday after an absence from the racecourse through injury. He won the Champion Stakes at an amazing 12/1 last year when he was my biggest winner by far of that flat season but all the talk before the weekend has been about Frankel and the fact that the race will be his swansong. Cirrus was again being ignored and before he won the Prix Dollar I took some 18 and 16 on Betfair about him for the Ascot contest. Obviously Frankel will be a massive nut to crack and I am to a large extent hoping for soft ground the gelding. I think he's a special horse under those conditions and Ascot with it's short straight isn't Frankel's ideal venue.
Champion Stakes:
Cirrus Des Aigles £10w @ 16/1
----------------------
Arkle:
Trifolium £10w @ 27/1
Champion Hurdle:
Spirit Son £35w @ 13/1
RSA Chase:
Fingal Bay £40w @ 12/1
Gold Cup:
Flemenstar £40w @ 12/1
-----------------------
1000 Guineas:
Newfangled £15w @ 16/1
06/10/2012
Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe
Bronze Angel's win last Saturday was some buzz. He only took the lead in the last fifty yards but put nearly a length between himself and the runner up as they crossed the line and if his trainer runs him in the Lincoln he'd be worth backing again. As a punter who doesn't bet every day wins like this define a season and I'm now sure to finish in profit this flat season.
I'm in a great position in tomorrow's big race despite three non-runners now Danedream doesn't go (although I got some of my stake back on her so unusual were the circumstances regarding her withdrawal). I first backed Orfevre for the race way back in April when someone posted a video on a Forum I'm a member of of a race where he dropped out as the runners went around a bend only for the horse to get back in the race late on to finish second. It was a stunning performance. Japanese horses have tried and failed to win this race in the past and like runners-up Nakayama Festa and El Condor Pasa Orfevre has raced in France in preparation for the Arc and I think his run in the Prix Foy was most encouraging. I have 12/1 about him which is now excellent value but I do worry that really soft ground won't be totally ideal. His wide draw in stall 18 is far from ideal as well. Having said that the likes of Dalakhani and Sakhee have won the race from coffin draws in the past and with Soumillon riding (no one rides Longchamp better) I still expect a big run.
Nick Mordin came out with an interesting statistic in relation to the race in this week's Racing Post Weekender. Apparently 12 of the last 13 Arc winners had won a Group 1 race that season by at least two lengths. Only Orfevre, Camelot and St Nicholas Abbey qualify of this years runners. I can't have Camelot as his trainer has a terrible record with his 3yos at this meeting (they're usually over the top by the Autumn so busy have they been running in Classics) and his run in the St Leger hardly inspires any confidence. SNA has been on the go all year and for me has no chance. Sea Moon though won the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot by three lengths and that race is pretty much a Group 1 in all but name. It is certainly usually a better race than most Group 1 races run in Germany and even the odd one in France. Sea Moon loves cut in the ground and conditions in Paris will really suit him tomorrow. I think he has excellent place claims.
I've also backed the 3yo Saonois. He won the Prix du Jockey Club a shade cozy and might have been more impressive (and even qualified using Mordin's stat) if that race was still a 12f contest. I was also taken with his win in the Prix Niel. After my debacle in the race last year when I was all over SNA and Sarafina I resolved that I would never go into the Arc again without at least one 3yo on my side. They have a terrific record in the race and I feel this is partly due to the overly generous weight-for-age allowance they receive (older males give 8 and 11lb to 3yo colts and fillies respectively) and also the way they are put away for the summer in preparation for the race. Saonois seems the likeliest candidate of that age group and his unfashionable connections mean he is still overpriced. In summary Camelot's ridiculous price (he's favourite when I believe there are at least four likelier winners) means there is good value to be had about more than one horse in this great race in 2012.
I normally top up on my main fancy for these races as the day gets close but with Orfevre's poor draw/soft ground concern and my liking for the two other animals mentioned I've decided to leave it.
Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe:
Orfevre £70w @ 12/1 (lost)
Sea Moon £15w £25pl @ 12/1(lost)
Saonois £30w @ 10/1(lost)
£40 lost on three non-runners
(+881)
I'm in a great position in tomorrow's big race despite three non-runners now Danedream doesn't go (although I got some of my stake back on her so unusual were the circumstances regarding her withdrawal). I first backed Orfevre for the race way back in April when someone posted a video on a Forum I'm a member of of a race where he dropped out as the runners went around a bend only for the horse to get back in the race late on to finish second. It was a stunning performance. Japanese horses have tried and failed to win this race in the past and like runners-up Nakayama Festa and El Condor Pasa Orfevre has raced in France in preparation for the Arc and I think his run in the Prix Foy was most encouraging. I have 12/1 about him which is now excellent value but I do worry that really soft ground won't be totally ideal. His wide draw in stall 18 is far from ideal as well. Having said that the likes of Dalakhani and Sakhee have won the race from coffin draws in the past and with Soumillon riding (no one rides Longchamp better) I still expect a big run.
Nick Mordin came out with an interesting statistic in relation to the race in this week's Racing Post Weekender. Apparently 12 of the last 13 Arc winners had won a Group 1 race that season by at least two lengths. Only Orfevre, Camelot and St Nicholas Abbey qualify of this years runners. I can't have Camelot as his trainer has a terrible record with his 3yos at this meeting (they're usually over the top by the Autumn so busy have they been running in Classics) and his run in the St Leger hardly inspires any confidence. SNA has been on the go all year and for me has no chance. Sea Moon though won the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot by three lengths and that race is pretty much a Group 1 in all but name. It is certainly usually a better race than most Group 1 races run in Germany and even the odd one in France. Sea Moon loves cut in the ground and conditions in Paris will really suit him tomorrow. I think he has excellent place claims.
I've also backed the 3yo Saonois. He won the Prix du Jockey Club a shade cozy and might have been more impressive (and even qualified using Mordin's stat) if that race was still a 12f contest. I was also taken with his win in the Prix Niel. After my debacle in the race last year when I was all over SNA and Sarafina I resolved that I would never go into the Arc again without at least one 3yo on my side. They have a terrific record in the race and I feel this is partly due to the overly generous weight-for-age allowance they receive (older males give 8 and 11lb to 3yo colts and fillies respectively) and also the way they are put away for the summer in preparation for the race. Saonois seems the likeliest candidate of that age group and his unfashionable connections mean he is still overpriced. In summary Camelot's ridiculous price (he's favourite when I believe there are at least four likelier winners) means there is good value to be had about more than one horse in this great race in 2012.
I normally top up on my main fancy for these races as the day gets close but with Orfevre's poor draw/soft ground concern and my liking for the two other animals mentioned I've decided to leave it.
Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe:
Orfevre £70w @ 12/1 (lost)
Sea Moon £15w £25pl @ 12/1(lost)
Saonois £30w @ 10/1(lost)
£40 lost on three non-runners
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